- 1 Motherwell vs Celtic: two losing runs, only one history worth trusting
- 2 Motherwell: one goal in three games and a treatment room that won’t empty
- 3 Celtic: rattled by Rangers, but six straight away league wins
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Motherwell vs Celtic
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Motherwell vs Celtic: two losing runs, only one history worth trusting 
Celtic have lost one of their last 38 meetings with Motherwell. One. That’s the figure that frames Sunday’s Scottish Premiership game at Fir Park, kick-off 13:00 Paris time, far more than anything that happened in the last fortnight.
And the last fortnight has been rough for the champions. A 3-0 League Cup quarter-final hammering at Ibrox, a 3-1 home defeat to Ferencvaros in the Europa League, then a 1-0 loss to Rangers at Celtic Park in the league. Three games, three defeats, one goal scored.
The data paints a specific picture, though. Celtic still sit top of the table with 18 points from seven matches, two clear, and they’d won all six league games before the Old Firm setback. The crisis talk is loud. The table is calmer.
Motherwell’s slide is arguably worse. Alfred Johansson’s side went unbeaten through their first six competitive matches of the season, then the floor gave way: three straight league defeats, seven goals conceded and one scored, a drop to eighth on eight points. They’re only two clear of 11th-placed Falkirk now.
So which losing streak breaks first? Break down the numbers and a clear edge emerges for the visitors. Celtic have won 19 of the 22 competitive meetings between these clubs since 2020, and Motherwell have shipped two or more goals in seven of the last eight. That’s not a coincidence. It’s a pattern.
Motherwell: one goal in three games and a treatment room that won’t empty 
Seven conceded, one scored. That’s Motherwell’s last three league matches, and it doesn’t bear close inspection. A 1-0 defeat at Ibrox was respectable enough. The 4-0 home loss to Aberdeen that followed wasn’t, and the 2-1 defeat at Dundee before the break confirmed the drift.
The Dundee game tells you everything you need to know about where this side is. Motherwell had 63% of the ball. Dundee had more shots on target, six to four, and went two up through a Joe Westley penalty and a Bradley Fink header before Alex Lowry pulled one back. Possession without punch.
The wider run makes for uncomfortable reading. Six defeats and one win in their last eight fixtures across all competitions, with 2.25 goals conceded per game in that stretch. It started with a shock 1-0 League Cup exit at Stenhousemuir and two Conference League play-off defeats to Freiburg, including a 4-1 loss in Germany.
Johansson’s squad is also thin right now. Callum Hendry, Johnny Koutroumbis, Jordan McGhee, Paul McGinn and Oscar Priestman are all expected to miss out, which strips experience from the back line and depth from midfield. That’s a lot of bodies to lose at once.
Johansson has publicly dismissed the idea of a Celtic crisis, calling the visitors a side with huge quality. He’s right. And his own team can ill afford to give that quality any room, because they haven’t shown they can contain it.
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Celtic: rattled by Rangers, but six straight away league wins 
Martin O’Neill’s side have won their last six away matches in the Premiership. They’ve scored two or more goals in five of those six. Strip out the Old Firm noise, and that’s the record that walks into Fir Park on Sunday.
The 1-0 home defeat to Rangers was ugly, no question. Celtic finished with one shot on target, Rangers took 15 shots to their five, and the expected goals read 1.75 against 0.39. A switch to a 3-4-2-1 didn’t work. A return to the 4-2-3-1 looks likely, and it suits the players at O’Neill’s disposal better.
Before that, though, the league form was clean. Kilmarnock 1-5, Falkirk 2-1, Aberdeen 3-0, St Mirren 1-2, St Johnstone 0-1. Five wins, 13 goals scored, three conceded. A side that knows what it’s about domestically.
Team news isn’t perfect. Alistair Johnston, Callum Osmand and Jota are expected to sit this out, Benjamin Nygren is a doubt after returning early from international duty with a virus, and Yang Hyun-Jun picked up a hamstring problem with South Korea. Still, Callum McGregor, Cameron Carter-Vickers and Kieran Tierney give this XI a spine that Motherwell can’t match.
O’Neill has said he’s as determined as ever to lead the club to the title. Words are cheap after three defeats. A result at Fir Park, against a side Celtic have beaten seven times in the last eight meetings, would say more. Their last visit here in May ended 3-2, settled by a Kelechi Iheanacho penalty in stoppage time.
Probable lineup Motherwell: Paulsen; Sparrow, Girdwood-Reich, Moormann, Longelo; Fadinger, Hodge; Maswanhise, Lowry, Vogt; Charles-Cook
Probable lineup Celtic: Sinisalo; Donovan, Carter-Vickers, Trusty, Tierney; McGregor, Baur; Hassan, Tounekti, Duran; Hogh
Free Football Prediction: Motherwell vs Celtic
Our prediction: Celtic to win (odds around 1.57)
It’s not complicated: Celtic away, with six straight league wins on the road, against a side that’s conceded seven in three and scored once. Motherwell’s possession numbers at Dundee looked tidy, but they didn’t produce anything, and a weakened defence won’t hold out for 90 minutes against this attack.
The head-to-head adds weight. Nineteen Celtic wins in 22 meetings since 2020, two or more Motherwell goals conceded in seven of the last eight, one Motherwell win in 38. The recent Celtic wobble came against Rangers and Ferencvaros, both a level above what Fir Park offers.
At around 1.57, the away win is the call. The risk is the mood around Celtic, but the numbers point one way, and we’re siding with them.
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