- 1 Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: 17 goals conceded meets a promoted side that won’t stop running
- 2 Union Berlin: one point, four goals scored and a home ground that’s lost its bite
- 3 SV Elversberg: unbeaten on the road and more intense than almost anyone
- 4 Free Bundesliga Prediction: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg: 17 goals conceded meets a promoted side that won’t stop running 
Four games, one point, 17 goals conceded. Union Berlin’s start to the Bundesliga season has been about as bad as it gets, and they come out of the international break still looking for a first win.
Their visitors on Saturday (kick-off 15:30 Paris time at the Stadion An der Alten Forsterei) are newly promoted SV Elversberg. A club that was playing fourth-tier football just over four years ago now sits seventh, with seven points and a two-point cushion over the bottom three before a ball is kicked here.
It’s the first competitive meeting between the two clubs. No league history, no cup ties. Just one side in freefall and another enjoying every minute of its first top-flight campaign.
For context, it took Union until matchday 10 of last season to concede 17 league goals. They’ve done it in four this time. Union are also the first side in the club’s Bundesliga history to go winless through the opening four rounds, and the single point they took from Eintracht Frankfurt on matchday one is a new club low.
Elversberg, meanwhile, haven’t lost away from home. They won 4-3 at Borussia Monchengladbach in early September and drew 0-0 at Schalke before the break, their first clean sheet of the season.
The prices don’t fully reflect that contrast. Bookmakers still have Union as slight favourites at around 2.10, with Elversberg at 3.38. Is that the Alte Forsterei’s reputation doing the talking? It certainly isn’t the form.
Union Berlin: one point, four goals scored and a home ground that’s lost its bite 
The last game before the break was a 7-0 defeat at Bayern Munich. Plenty of teams lose heavily in Munich, so that result alone isn’t the concern. The concern is everything around it.
Mauro Lustrinelli’s side have scored four league goals in four games and conceded 17. That’s a goal difference of minus 13 after a month. There’s no sugarcoating it.
The home record is just as worrying. Union have failed to win six of their last seven matches at the Alte Forsterei, losing three of them. That ground used to be a fortress. Right now, visiting teams don’t fear it.
There’s a wider trend here too. Another defeat on Saturday would be Union’s eighth in their last 12 Bundesliga games, and they’ve won only twice in that run. This isn’t a bad week. It’s a bad stretch that started last season and hasn’t been fixed.
Lustrinelli also can’t call on a completely full squad despite the break, and the 4-3-3 he’s expected to use has looked open whenever opponents break quickly. Teams have found it far too easy to run at this back line.
On the positive side, the squad is relatively healthy. Andrik Markgraf is out with a knee injury and Stanley N’Soki is a doubt with a calf problem, but Leopold Querfeld and Felix Uduokhai should pair up at centre-back, with Rani Khedira and Janik Haberer in midfield. The personnel is there. The confidence clearly isn’t.
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SV Elversberg: unbeaten on the road and more intense than almost anyone 
Elversberg weren’t supposed to be here. They were runners-up in the second tier last season, and most people expected a relegation scrap from day one. Instead they’ve won four, drawn one and lost one of their last six games in all competitions.
The underlying numbers back up the results. Compared with Union, they’ve scored twice as many league goals, contested 115 more duels and made 21 more sprints. This is a side that works for everything.
Vincent Wagner’s main worry is at the back. The goalless draw at Schalke was their first clean sheet in five outings this season, and they’ve been open in plenty of games. Against a Union attack this blunt, that might not matter much.
Up front, David Mokwa is expected to lead the line, flanked by Lukas Petkov and Cole Campbell, with Felix Keidel and Lukasz Poreba sitting in front of the back four. The midfield pairing is the engine room, and it rarely stops.
Their league record reads two wins, a draw and a defeat, and the ten goals they’ve scored in all competitions tell you this isn’t a side that sits back. The 4-3 win at Gladbach was chaotic, but it showed they’ll happily trade blows away from home. That suits a trip to a team short of confidence.
Luis Seifert (ankle) and Tom Zimmerschied (match fitness) are unavailable. Neither absence should change the way Elversberg play: high energy, direct, and unafraid of a bigger name.
Probable lineup Union Berlin: Ronnow; Juranovic, Querfeld, Uduokhai, Rothe; Jeong, Khedira, Haberer, Aebischer; Lath, Burcu
Probable lineup SV Elversberg: Kristof; Gyamerah, Pinckert, Rohr, Gunther; Keidel, Poreba; Petkov, Darvich, Campbell; Mokwa
Free Bundesliga Prediction: Union Berlin vs SV Elversberg
Our prediction: SV Elversberg or draw (double chance)
Union are priced as favourites, but very little in their season supports it. One point from four games, 17 goals conceded, and only one win in their last seven home matches. That’s a side short on belief.
Elversberg bring the better form, the better attack and an away record that’s still unbeaten. Over their last five games they’ve collected ten points to Union’s four, and they’ve outscored them 13-8.
We don’t need Elversberg to win to land this. Covering the draw protects against a Union reaction after the break, while backing the side that’s simply playing better football. The visitors shouldn’t leave Berlin empty-handed.
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