- 1 Lazio vs Monza: Gattuso’s side chase a club record against a team that’s never beaten them
- 2 Lazio: three clean sheets in five and a defence that’s carried the whole run
- 3 Monza: Varela’s goals keep them alive, but the back line keeps letting them down
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Lazio vs Monza
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Lazio vs Monza: Gattuso’s side chase a club record against a team that’s never beaten them 
Lazio have never won five of their first six Serie A games. Not once in the club’s history. On Sunday at the Stadio Olimpico, kick-off 15:00 Paris time, they get the chance to do exactly that, and the visitors are a Monza side who’ve yet to beat them in the top flight.
It’s been quite a turnaround. Gennaro Gattuso’s first game in charge ended in a Coppa Italia exit against Mantova, hardly the start anyone in Rome had in mind. Since then, his side have taken 13 points from five league games and sit level with Inter and Roma near the top of the table.
The way they’ve done it matters. Three clean sheets in five matches, and only Cagliari have conceded fewer goals in Serie A so far. This isn’t a side blowing teams away. It’s a side that’s very hard to score against.
Monza arrive with a very different story to tell. Promoted through the Serie B playoffs, they took one point from their first four games under Ivan Juric and leaked goals almost every week. Then, just before the international break, they beat Sassuolo 2-1 to finally get a win on the board.
So is that Sassuolo result the start of something, or a brief bit of relief? The away numbers suggest the second option. Monza have shipped eight goals across three road trips since coming back up, and the Olimpico hasn’t been kind to them before.
The gap on paper is clear. The real question is whether Monza’s new striker can make it uncomfortable.
Lazio: three clean sheets in five and a defence that’s carried the whole run 
Start with the sequence. A 1-0 win at Bologna, a 1-0 home win over Genoa, then a 2-1 victory at Udinese. Three narrow wins, two of them on the road, all built on structure rather than flair.
The 2-2 draw with AC Milan is the one blemish, and it’s an instructive one. Lazio led by two goals at home and couldn’t see it out. That’s the only time this season their defensive shape has really cracked, and it came against one of the stronger attacks in the league.
They responded well. Two second-half goals at Venezia before the break, with Zaccagni and Tijjani Noslin both on the scoresheet, and another clean sheet to go with it. That’s the profile of this team right now: patient, organised, and clinical enough when the chance comes.
Davide Frattesi has been a big part of it. Three Serie A goals already since his arrival, and he came back from international duty in good form after impressing for Italy in the Nations League. Zaccagni has a goal and two assists. Noslin has two goals. The attacking output is spread around, which makes Lazio harder to plan for.
There are absences, though. Albert Gudmundsson returned from Iceland duty with a dislocated shoulder and won’t play. Adam Marusic, Danilo Cataldi and Nicolo Rovella are also out, which thins the midfield options. Matteo Cancellieri is back in full training and could make the bench.
Gattuso has to choose between Andrea Pinamonti and Noslin up front. Either way, the core of the side stays the same. Josip Sutalo is fit after Croatia duty. The back line that’s kept three clean sheets should be intact.
One more thing worth knowing: the break was quiet for those who stayed behind, with low-key friendlies against Arezzo and Juve Stabia. Lazio come into Sunday about as settled as a squad missing four players can be.
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Monza: Varela’s goals keep them alive, but the back line keeps letting them down 
Twelve goals conceded in five Serie A games. That’s the number that defines Monza’s return to the top flight, and it’s hard to see it changing quickly.
The opening run was rough. A 4-1 defeat at Inter, a 3-2 home loss to Udinese, a 1-1 draw at Parma, then a 3-2 defeat at Lecce. In three of those four games, Monza scored at least once and still came away with nothing. The attack isn’t the problem. The defending is.
Gustavo Varela is the reason they’ve got a pulse. The summer signing has four Serie A goals already, including both in the 2-1 win over Sassuolo, and he missed one game through injury along the way. Take him out of this side and the goal threat drops sharply. He’ll lead the line again on Sunday.
The supply comes from wide. Wing-back Birindelli has two assists, and Mangas has a goal and two assists from the other flank. Juric’s system relies on those two getting forward, which is exactly what can leave gaps behind them against a side like Lazio who are happy to sit and counter.
The injury list doesn’t help. Captain Matteo Pessina is still out, and so is Roma loanee Jan Ziolkowski. Wing-backs Idrissa Toure and Patrick Ciurria are close to returning, but Sunday may come too soon. Summer arrivals Folorunsho and Akinsanmiro should start in midfield again.
History makes for uncomfortable reading too. Monza have played Lazio six times in Serie A, lost four and never won. Their last trip to the Olimpico ended in a 5-1 hammering, shortly before they went down. Different squad, different coach, but it’s not a ground that holds happy memories.
Probable lineup Lazio: Mandas; Floriani Mussolini, Sutalo, Provstgaard, Tavares; Frattesi, Belahyane, Taylor; Isaksen, Noslin, Zaccagni
Probable lineup Monza: Tornqvist; Kouadio, Lucchesi, Carboni; Birindelli, Akinsanmiro, Folorunsho, Mangas; Colpani, Robinson; Varela
Free Serie A Prediction: Lazio vs Monza
Our prediction: Lazio to win (odds 1.61)
The case for Lazio is built on two numbers. They’ve kept three clean sheets in five league games, and Monza have conceded eight goals in three away matches. One side is very hard to break down. The other breaks down easily on the road.
Varela gives Monza a real threat, and we wouldn’t be shocked to see him find a way through once. But Lazio have only conceded twice in a game once this season, and that was against Milan. Monza’s midfield, without Pessina, doesn’t have the quality to control the ball for long spells at the Olimpico.
Add the club record on the line and a home crowd that’s started to believe again, and the home win at 1.61 is the call. Lazio don’t need to be brilliant here. They just need to be themselves.
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