- 1 Torino vs Udinese: two four-point sides, and both are short of strikers
- 2 Torino: 59% of the ball and nowhere to take it
- 3 Udinese: 26 shots against Cagliari, zero goals, and a treatment room filling up
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Torino vs Udinese
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Torino vs Udinese: two four-point sides, and both are short of strikers 
Four points each. One win, one draw, three defeats each. Torino and Udinese have done exactly the same damage in five Serie A games, and they meet on Monday night with 13th against 14th on the line.
Kick-off is Monday 12 October at 20:45 Paris time at the Stadio Olimpico Grande Torino. It closes Matchday 6, and it’s the kind of game that tends to get decided by whoever blinks first.
The numbers aren’t flattering. Torino average one goal a game and an expected goals figure of 0.8. Udinese score more, 1.6 per match, but they also concede 2.2. Two sides going nowhere fast.
And then there’s the injury list. Torino are without Che Adams, their joint top scorer. Udinese are missing Nicolo Zaniolo, and Keinan Davis is a doubt. What does that leave either attack with? Not much.
The market leans Torino at home, around 2.29, with Udinese at 3.15. More telling is the goals line: under 2.5 sits at 1.70, over 2.5 at 2.09. The bookmakers expect a tight one. So do we.
Torino: 59% of the ball and nowhere to take it 
Torino keep the ball. They average 59% possession, more than plenty of sides in the top half. Then they do almost nothing with it: 8.6 shots per game and six chances created. That’s sterile.
The results reflect it. A home defeat to Milan on the opening day, a 2-1 loss at Sassuolo, then a 2-1 win at Fiorentina built on two late goals. After that came a 2-0 home defeat to Roma and a 1-1 draw at Bologna before the break. Five goals scored in five league games.
The home record is the worry. Two league games at the Olimpico Grande Torino, two defeats, one goal scored. The crowd is still waiting for a first home point of the season. That takes some explaining.
Losing Adams hurts. He’s got two of those five goals and leads the side in expected goals. Pietro Pellegri is out too, so the striking options are thin. Rolando Mandragora, with seven shots on target, has been the most dangerous midfielder, and he’ll need to step up again.
The positive? Torino don’t get blown away. Eight conceded in five, 1.6 a game, isn’t great, but they’ve only lost by more than one goal once. Low event, low margin. That’s who they are.
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Udinese: 26 shots against Cagliari, zero goals, and a treatment room filling up 
Twenty-six shots. Sixty-five per cent of the ball. Sixteen corners. Udinese did everything against Cagliari before the break except score, and lost 1-0 at home. It sums up a side that creates but can’t finish.
Their league run before that was rough. A draw with Como, a win at Monza, then three straight losses: 2-1 at home to Lazio, 5-3 at Inter and that Cagliari defeat. Eight scored, 11 conceded. The 5-3 at San Siro skews the goals column badly.
The bigger problem is availability. Zaniolo is out. So are Oumar Solet, Jakub Piotrowski, Juan Arizala and Matteo Palma. Davis, who’s provided two assists, is doubtful. Idrissa Gueye needed ankle surgery and won’t be back for three months.
That’s a spine ripped out. Hassane Kamara, with two goals from left-back, is joint top scorer, and that tells you everything you need to know about where the goals haven’t been coming from.
There’s one arrival worth noting. David Alaba joined on a free in late September after leaving Real Madrid, adding experience to a defence that badly needs it. Udinese can ill afford more chaos at the back, and the 34-year-old should help settle things.
Probable lineup Torino: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Udinese: Not announced at time of publication
Free Serie A Prediction: Torino vs Udinese
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals @ 1.70
Torino have scored once in two home league games and generate 0.8 expected goals a game. Their top scorer is out. Udinese’s top scorer is a full-back, and their creative pieces, Zaniolo and possibly Davis, are missing. Neither attack is built to run riot here.
Strip out the 5-3 at Inter and Udinese’s games look far tighter. Torino’s matches have mostly been decided by a single goal. With 13th against 14th and neither side able to afford a defeat, caution wins.
A 1-0 or 1-1 is the most natural outcome. Under 2.5 is the play.
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