- 1 Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos: an 0-4 team that might be better than it looks
- 2 Los Angeles Chargers: Herbert under pressure, the offensive line in pieces
- 3 Denver Broncos: a 2-2 record that hides some worrying numbers
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos: an 0-4 team that might be better than it looks 
Nobody in the NFL has had a worse start than the Los Angeles Chargers. Four games, four defeats, including home losses to Arizona and Las Vegas. Lose on Sunday and they’re 0-5, with the season effectively over before Halloween.
Their visitors are the defending AFC West champions. Denver are 2-2 after facing four straight playoff teams from last season, and the market has installed them as 3.5-point road favourites at SoFi Stadium. Kick-off is at 4:05 p.m. ET on Sunday 11 October, which is 22:05 Paris time.
On the surface, that price makes sense. One team is winless, the other has a winning tradition and a coach in Sean Payton who’s had the better of this rivalry lately: the Broncos are 6-4 against the spread in their last ten meetings with the Chargers.
Look a little deeper and the picture changes. By net yards per play, the Chargers rank 17th in the league at -0.3. Denver rank 26th at -0.7. So which of these teams is really the struggling one?
Throw in a long injury list on both sides and a total of just 42.5 points, and this looks like a game that will be decided by small margins rather than a three-touchdown blowout.
History points the same way. The Under has landed in six of the last ten meetings between these two clubs, and in six of Denver’s last ten games overall. Neither side has the offensive firepower right now to change that trend.
Los Angeles Chargers: Herbert under pressure, the offensive line in pieces 
Justin Herbert has completed 59.7% of his passes for 816 yards, four touchdowns and six interceptions. Those aren’t the numbers of a franchise quarterback, and he knows it. There’s no sugarcoating it: he has to play better.
He hasn’t had much help, though. Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater, the two starting tackles, both left the 30-23 loss in Seattle last Sunday, and so did receiver Ladd McConkey. If all three miss out, Jim Harbaugh is patching holes all over the offence.
The new offensive coordinator, Mike McDaniel, was brought in to fix a unit that allowed Herbert to be sacked 54 times in 2025. The opening drive of the season promised plenty. Not much since.
There’s a route forward here, and it runs along the ground. Denver’s defence ranks 27th in yards per rush allowed, so the Chargers can lean on the run game to keep Herbert in manageable situations. That’s exactly how a struggling offence should attack this opponent.
The trend that stands out is the total. The Under has landed in eight of the Chargers’ last ten games. This isn’t a team that wins shootouts, and it won’t try to start one on Sunday.
The fixture list hasn’t been kind either. Between the two home defeats, the Chargers went to Buffalo in Week 3 to face a Bills side that had scored 36 points in each of its first two games, and came home with another loss. Four games in, they’ve barely had a soft landing.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Denver Broncos: a 2-2 record that hides some worrying numbers 
Denver score fewer first-half points than anyone in the league: 3.3 per game. That’s a remarkable figure for a team priced as a road favourite.
Bo Nix sits at the heart of the debate. One widely used grading model ranks him 35th out of 38 qualifying quarterbacks, and he’s 23rd in adjusted EPA per play and 27th in completion percentage over expected. The Broncos have won games around him rather than because of him.
The schedule has been brutal, to be fair. The season opened with a 31-10 loss at Kansas City, and last Sunday ended in a 24-14 defeat against San Francisco. Two wins from four against that run of opponents isn’t a disaster.
The real problem is the medical room. Patrick Surtain II is doubtful with an ankle injury, fellow starting corner Riley Moss is questionable with a rib problem, and Pat Bryant is doubtful too. Losing two starting cornerbacks on the road is a much bigger deal than the line suggests.
If Surtain sits, the Chargers’ receivers suddenly have room to work. That changes the whole matchup.
Expect Sean Payton to lean on field position and a conservative script to protect Nix. That approach wins ugly games. It rarely wins them by four points or more, and that’s the margin Denver need here.
Probable lineup Los Angeles Chargers: QB Justin Herbert (full lineup not announced at time of publication)
Probable lineup Denver Broncos: QB Bo Nix (full lineup not announced at time of publication)
Free NFL Prediction: Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos
Our prediction: Los Angeles Chargers +3.5 (1.91)
The Chargers are 0-4 against the spread, which is exactly why this number looks generous. By net yards per play they’ve been the better of these two teams, and Denver’s slow starts and shaky quarterback play don’t justify laying more than a field goal on the road.
Denver’s secondary is the deciding factor. Without Surtain and possibly Moss, the Broncos are vulnerable through the air, and their run defence ranks 27th in yards per carry allowed. Both of those weaknesses play into the Chargers’ hands at home.
We expect a low-scoring, tight game in Inglewood, the kind where the hook on 3.5 matters. Chargers +3.5 at 1.91 is the pick, ideally once their own injury report confirms who’ll protect Herbert.
in your pocket.
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