- 1 Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears: favourites at Lambeau for the first time since 2006
- 2 Green Bay Packers: no Parsons, no Cooper, no Jacobs and a right tackle gone for the year
- 3 Chicago Bears: 36 points a game in their wins, whoever takes the snaps
- 4 Free NFL Prediction: Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears: favourites at Lambeau for the first time since 2006 
Twenty years. That’s how long it’s been since Chicago walked into Lambeau Field as the favourite. Week 1 of the 2006 season was the last time, and that Bears team went all the way to the Super Bowl. On Sunday 11 October, the market’s done it again.
Chicago opened as 1.5-point road favourites and the number’s already moved to 2.5. The Bears are 1.70 on the moneyline, Green Bay 2.20, and the total sits at 44.5. Kick-off is at 1:00 p.m. ET, which is 19:00 Paris time, on FOX.
That kick-off slot tells its own story. This game was originally scheduled for the 4:25 p.m. ET national window. The league flexed it into the early slot once Caleb Williams’ hamstring put his availability in doubt, and handed the late spot to San Francisco and Seattle instead.
Here’s the bottom line. The Bears are 3-1 straight up and 3-1 against the spread. The Packers are 2-2 and 1-3 against the number, and neither of their wins would impress anyone: an overtime escape against the Jets, then a narrow win over a Tampa Bay side starting an undrafted rookie quarterback.
The rivalry’s tilted too. Chicago lost 14 of 17 meetings before beating Green Bay twice in a row, the second of those a Wild Card win in January. A third straight would be their first such run since 2006.
Can the Packers stop the slide at home? On current evidence, it’s hard to see how.
Green Bay Packers: no Parsons, no Cooper, no Jacobs and a right tackle gone for the year 
Start with the absences, because they’re brutal. Micah Parsons still isn’t close to a return. Edgerrin Cooper has likely been lost for the season. Josh Jacobs remains on the Commissioner’s Exempt List, so he won’t play either.
Then there’s the offensive line. Right tackle Zach Bako-Bewele ruptured his patellar tendon and won’t be back this season. That leaves a hole on the edge in the same week Chicago’s pass rush has started to wake up. Terrible timing.
The results haven’t hidden any of it. Green Bay led 22-10 at the start of the fourth quarter in Minneapolis on opening night and lost 39-22. Atlanta then came to Lambeau and won 35-14 on a Thursday night. That record takes some explaining for a side plenty of people tipped to contend.
Jordan Love hasn’t looked like the answer. He’s looked lost in spells, and without Jacobs the run game doesn’t give him much cover. You can dress it up however you want: this offence is stuck.
There’s one number in their corner. Under Matt LaFleur, the Packers are 6-2 against the spread as home underdogs, a 75% cover rate and the best in the league over that span. Credit where it’s due, they’ve made a habit of punching back at Lambeau.
But covering isn’t winning. And this roster is thinner than any of those eight.
no renewal
Free for 2 weeks.
Chicago Bears: 36 points a game in their wins, whoever takes the snaps 
Thirty-six points per game. That’s what Chicago are averaging in their three wins, and they’ve done it with a quarterback room that’s been patched together for weeks.
Week 1 set the tone: 59-37 in Charlotte, the highest-scoring opening-week game the league has ever seen. Williams accounted for four touchdowns that night. Then the hamstring went late in the defeat to Minnesota at a waterlogged Soldier Field, a game the Bears were driving to win, and they had to find another way.
They found it. Case Keenum went 24 of 34 for 247 yards and two touchdown passes as Chicago beat Philadelphia 27-7 on Monday night. Last weekend they handled the Jets with plenty to spare, with Austin Booker’s breakout game the headline on defence. This team doesn’t need its starter to put points on the board.
Ben Johnson is the reason. His offence travels, and his feelings about Green Bay have never been a secret. With the Packers missing two of their best defenders, he’ll smell blood.
Williams’ status is still open heading into the week. Chicago are favourites with or without him, which tells you everything you need to know about how highly this group is rated now.
Win here and the Bears go to 4-1, keeping the pressure on an unbeaten Minnesota side at the top of the NFC North. Lose, and they’ve dropped two divisional games before Halloween. They know which one they’d rather.
Probable lineup Green Bay Packers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Chicago Bears: Not announced at time of publication
Free NFL Prediction: Green Bay Packers vs Chicago Bears
Our prediction: Chicago Bears to win at 1.70
Chicago win this. The Bears are healthier where it matters, they’re scoring at will, and they face a defence without Parsons or Cooper. Green Bay’s two wins came against the Jets in overtime and against a Tampa Bay side with a rookie under centre. That’s not a resume that scares anyone.
The 1.70 is a fair price for the better team. Laying 2.5 points on the road is tempting, but the Packers’ record as home underdogs under LaFleur is a warning worth heeding. The moneyline keeps it simple: we need Chicago to win, not to win by three.
The risk is obvious. Lambeau, a rivalry, a home side with its back to the wall. But the last two meetings both went Chicago’s way, and this Green Bay roster can ill afford to lose anyone else. Bears, straight up.
in your pocket.
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