- 1 Genoa vs Fiorentina: one point, three goals, and a squad running out of strikers
- 2 Genoa: three goals in five games and the injuries keep stacking up
- 3 Fiorentina: a summer spending spree finally starting to show under Vanoli
- 4 Free Serie A Prediction: Genoa vs Fiorentina
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Genoa vs Fiorentina: one point, three goals, and a squad running out of strikers 
One point from five games. Three goals scored. Genoa are 19th in Serie A and still waiting for their first league win of the season.
Fiorentina aren’t exactly flying either. Four points, 17th place, and a coaching change already behind them after Fabio Grosso lasted only a handful of weeks. But there’s a difference between a side that’s struggling and one that’s stuck. Since Paolo Vanoli came back to the Viola bench, they’ve beaten Venezia 4-2 away, thrashed Pisa 3-0 in the Coppa Italia and held Napoli 1-1 at the Franchi.
The two meet at the Luigi Ferraris on Saturday 10 October, kick-off 15:00 Paris time. It’s the first game back after a long international break, and for Daniele De Rossi it’s already starting to feel like a must-win.
Here’s the problem for the hosts. Genoa haven’t beaten Fiorentina in the last six meetings. Three defeats, three draws. The last three visits to Genoa produced a 4-1, a 1-0 and a 2-2, none of them a home win.
Can De Rossi turn it around with half his forward line in the treatment room? Hard to see how.
The market agrees. Fiorentina sit around 2.38 to win, Genoa around 3.25, the draw at 3.48. The away side are the right favourites.
Genoa: three goals in five games and the injuries keep stacking up 
Lorenzo Colombo is out. So are Franz-Ethan Meichtry and Lorenzo Venturino. Elias Havel is a fitness doubt. That’s four forwards for a team that’s already the bluntest in the league.
Look at the results. A 2-0 home defeat to Napoli on the opening night, 1-0 at Lazio, then a 4-1 hammering at home by Como. A 1-1 draw with promoted Frosinone brought the only point. Then Parma, 2-1, with Pontus Almqvist scoring the winner in the 80th minute at the Tardini. Five games, three goals scored, ten conceded.
That’s two conceded a game. It doesn’t get much uglier.
De Rossi kept Genoa up last season and the club has stuck by him. But the international break didn’t bring much reassurance. A friendly at Rapid Bucharest on 2 October ended in a 2-0 defeat. The only win of the season came in the Coppa Italia, 1-0 against Serie B side Sudtirol.
Without Colombo, the attack will lean on Milutin Osmajic up front with Junior Messias and Tommaso Baldanzi behind him. Messias has been the one Genoa player getting shots on target with any regularity. Is that enough against a Fiorentina side that’s started to find some rhythm? Probably not.
The defensive numbers are just as worrying. Como scored four at the Ferraris. Napoli scored twice there on the opening night. Even Frosinone, newly promoted, found a way through. Genoa haven’t kept a clean sheet in a league game yet, and the back three of Marcandalli, Ostigard and Otoa will have Mastantuono and Pellegrino running at them from the first whistle.
At home, Genoa have taken one point from three league games and scored twice. The Ferraris crowd will be loud. They’ll need to be.
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Fiorentina: a summer spending spree finally starting to show under Vanoli 
Fiorentina’s opening month was a mess. There’s no sugarcoating it.
They lost 4-0 at Roma on the first weekend, then 3-0 at home to Frosinone and 2-1 at home to Torino. Three games, zero points, nine goals conceded. That record cost Grosso his job, and Vanoli came back to steady a squad that had spent heavily over the summer.
The response has been sharp. A 4-2 win at Venezia on 11 September, a 3-0 cup win over Pisa four days later, and a 1-1 draw with Napoli at the Franchi on 20 September. Eight goals in three games, and a point taken off Napoli. The case builds.
The squad has real quality in the final third. Franco Mastantuono has been the most dangerous shooter in the team, Mateo Pellegrino leads the line, and Willy Gnonto adds pace on the other flank. David de Gea and Radu Dragusin give the back line experience it badly lacked in August.
Team news is mostly positive. Fabiano Parisi is out with a knee issue. Summer signing Alieu Njie picked up a thigh problem during the break and is a doubt. Everyone else should be available.
The defence still concedes. Twelve goals against in five league games doesn’t lie. But Fiorentina have scored in four of their last five competitive matches, and they face a side that’s managed three goals all season. That’s the matchup Vanoli wants.
Probable lineup Genoa: Bijlow; Marcandalli, Ostigard, Otoa; Ehizibue, Frendrup, Sow, Ellertsson; Junior Messias, Baldanzi; Osmajic
Probable lineup Fiorentina: De Gea; Alex Jimenez, Dragusin, Ranieri, Viery; Ndour, Fagioli, Atta; Mastantuono, Pellegrino, Gnonto
Free Serie A Prediction: Genoa vs Fiorentina
Our prediction: Fiorentina Draw No Bet @ 1.62
Genoa have no league wins, three goals in five games and four forwards unavailable or doubtful. Fiorentina have taken four points from their last two league outings, scored in four of five competitive matches and haven’t lost to Genoa in six meetings.
The Viola defence still gives chances away, which is why the straight win at 2.38 carries some risk. Draw No Bet at 1.62 keeps the stake safe if Genoa grind out a stalemate, and pays out on the result the form points to.
Fiorentina Draw No Bet. The away side are simply in better shape.
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