Ten thousand simulations, two runaway favourites
Ten thousand runs per fixture. That is what Opta’s supercomputer chewed through for Women’s Super League round three, and two clubs came out of it well clear of everyone else.
Chelsea carry the strongest number of the weekend, 84.4%, for the visit of Birmingham City. Sonia Bompastor takes charge of the 200th match of her coaching career that afternoon. She has never lost to a promoted side in the WSL, 14 wins and two draws, and her team have not been beaten in 10. Birmingham came up this summer and have won one of their last 16 against the Blues. Opta gives them 5.7%.
Manchester City are the only side with a perfect record after two rounds. They host Liverpool at 79.5%. The champions have won nine of their 10 home meetings with Liverpool in this competition and arrive on a 13-game winning run at the Joie Stadium. A 14th would pull them level with Chelsea’s second-longest streak in WSL history, set between September 2019 and January 2021.
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Arsenal have 43 shots and one goal to show for them
Arsenal host Manchester United at 62.6%. The number that matters sits elsewhere. One goal from 43 attempts since the season opened, against 3.9 expected goals. That 2.9 shortfall is the worst in the division, and Sunday’s goalless draw with promoted Crystal Palace told the story in miniature: 79% possession, 30 shots, nothing.
United have gone the other way. Two losses from two, their first such start since 2019-20, seven goals conceded and no club in the league has leaked more. Before this season the club had never shipped more than three across its opening two top-flight fixtures. Opta hands them 17.6% for the win and 19.8% for the draw.
Palace and Spurs: the model shrugs
Crystal Palace against Tottenham is the one game the model refuses to call. 37.8% for the Eagles, 35.8% for the Spurs. Neither has been beaten yet. Palace have gone two matches unbeaten for the first time in their WSL existence and now chase a third, something no promoted club has managed in this league.
West Ham against Everton is rated the likeliest draw of the round at 26.7%. Charlton, still without a point and still without a shot on target since promotion, host London City Lionesses, whose 45% is the best away figure on the card. Brighton sit at 51% against Aston Villa, though the Seagulls have not won in five.
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