Four women, one ranking
The women’s world No. 1 ranking changes hands in New York or it does not change at all. Four players can leave Flushing Meadows on Sept. 12 at the top of the list, and only one of them sits there now.
Aryna Sabalenka defends 2,000 points from her 2025 title. The Belarusian has held first place since October 2024, a run of 97 weeks, and she keeps it only by winning again or by watching Coco Gauff, Jessica Pegula and Elena Rybakina all fall short.
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Rybakina does not need to win
Rybakina holds the shortest route. She trails Sabalenka by 434 points and takes over without hitting a ball if none of the other three lifts the trophy. A run to the semi-finals settles it outright, and it would put her at No. 1 for the first time.
Her ankle complicates the arithmetic. The Kazakh second seed hurt her left ankle against Iga Swiatek in the Cincinnati quarter-finals, retired on the spot and then went eight days without practising. She returned to the courts at Flushing Meadows on Friday.
“Seems OK, so hopefully it’s going to be good for my first match,” Rybakina told The Mirror on Tuesday. “In total I had like 10 days, and I still have a couple more to prepare.”
Gauff drew the hard half
Neither American gets a gift. Gauff has never held the top ranking and needs the title to get there, with a possible third round against Alexandra Eala, who beat Pegula in Washington and Swiatek at Wimbledon this summer, then a quarter-final against Mirra Andreeva or Amanda Anisimova.
Twelve months on from the panic, her serve reads better. Gauff changed coaches days before the 2025 Open, brought in Gavin MacMillan to rebuild the motion and paid for it immediately in New York. Her first-serve percentage is up 1.6% on a year ago and her double faults are down 2.1%.
Sabalenka’s quarter fills up with Czech opposition, Barbora Krejcikova possibly in the third round and reigning Wimbledon champion Linda Noskova in the last eight. Pegula could meet Karolina Muchova or Elina Svitolina at the same stage. Swiatek, Naomi Osaka and Belinda Bencic all sit in the bottom half alongside Rybakina.
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