The first round of the playoffs was a grind for both the Pistons, who trailed the Magic 3-1, and the Cavaliers, who had to win a Game 7 in Cleveland against a Toronto side that was flying. In the end, the teams billed as the favourites in each series got through. Now the real stuff begins for two Eastern Conference franchises that mean business and have their eyes on the title. Analysis, player to watch and prediction from mathodds.
The form heading into the playoffs
Getting through to the semi-finals was anything but straightforward for the Pistons. By Game 4, JB Bickerstaff’s men were on the ropes, down 3-1 to a surprise Magic team. Against the run of play, Detroit somehow clawed back, and who else but Cade Cunningham dragged them out of the mud? The Pistons’ franchise man posted 45, 32 and 32 points to help finish off the Magic over the last three games. Over the series, he’s averaged 32 points, 7 assists and 6 rebounds, with shooting numbers that are pretty tidy for that kind of volume: 46% from the field, 40% from three.
Cade Cunningham’s playoff stats:
32.4 – +3140 – 157/5 points
7.1 assists
5.9 rebounds
60.2 TS%Superstar numbers for the Pistons’ face of the franchise. pic.twitter.com/TEysst1L9i
— Evan Sidery (@esidery) May 4, 2026
The other Pistons hero is Tobias Harris. Written off more than once in his career for poor playoff showings, the Detroit wing has put together an outstanding series. He’s averaging 22 points, 8 rebounds and 1.5 steals, and he exploded for 30 points, 9 rebounds and 3 steals in the decisive Game 7. That strong run has let Detroit get past the Magic while papering over the scoring from Jalen Duren, who really struggled throughout the series. Across the seven games, he’s averaged 10 points, 9 rebounds and 2 assists. Those numbers are miles below his regular-season output and nearly cost the Pistons the series.
The Cavaliers, fourth seed, arrive in this series after scraping through in seven against the Toronto Raptors, who pushed them to the brink. The first six games were almost absurdly even — both teams had scored exactly 669 points apiece before Game 7, with near-identical shooting splits. Cleveland only finally broke clear thanks to a dominant third quarter.
Jarrett Allen is the second Cavaliers player in postseason history with 20+ PTS and 15+ REB in Game 7 💪
He joins LeBron James on May 27, 2018 vs. the Celtics in the Eastern Conference finals. pic.twitter.com/PqjbKz78ZQ
— ESPN Insights (@ESPNInsights) May 4, 2026
Donovan Mitchell led the way with 23.1 points per game in the series, while James Harden brought his usual playmaking touch with 20.6 points and steady distribution. But there is a warning sign: in Games 6 and 7, the Mitchell-Harden duo fell off badly, scoring 80 points on 28-of-69 shooting, with just six threes made from 28 attempts across those two must-win nights. Cleveland got through, sure, but it also showed cracks Detroit won’t be slow to attack.
Pistons player to watch: Jalen Duren
Duren against the Magic: 10 points and 9 rebounds a night, a long way off his regular-season level, with a presence that faded too often when it mattered. Still, this semi-final could be the moment his series turns. Mobley and Allen will have to win their minutes against Duren and Isaiah Stewart — and for Detroit, getting their centre going will be key if they want to take some of the load off Cunningham’s shoulders.
Jalen Duren (15p, 15r) on his defensive effort today!
“I wasn’t ready to go on vacation.”
Pistons have punched their ticket to the East Semis for the first since 2008💥 pic.twitter.com/VfgK6bZKPx
— NBA (@NBA) May 3, 2026
The job is simple enough: establish himself physically at the rim from the opening possessions, force Cleveland’s two bigs to defend away from their comfort zone, and gobble up the offensive boards Cunningham can’t chase down on his own. If Duren gets back to his level and Detroit can score without everything running through Cade, Cleveland will be in real trouble.
Cavaliers player to watch: Donovan Mitchell
Mitchell piled up 65 points in two regular-season games against Detroit, while Harden finished on 18 points on 5-for-17 shooting in his one head-to-head. The message is obvious: Mitchell does the real damage against the Pistons, and he’s the one who has to carry Cleveland here. Ausar Thompson will be Detroit’s all-purpose defensive weapon, capable of bothering Mitchell or Harden depending on the moment, but he can’t be everywhere at once.
His key: attack before Thompson can get set, make quick decisions, and don’t let possessions bog down into half-court slop that suits Detroit’s defence. Mitchell led the Cavs with a 30% usage rate in the first round, which is perfectly fair for a creator of his level, while Cunningham was up at 37%. That physical edge could matter here.
mathodds prediction
Detroit win in 7 games (4-3).
3 key factors:
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Detroit’s three-point shortage can be offset by their ability to smother Cleveland’s offence: if the Pistons pack the paint and keep Mobley from stretching the floor, Mitchell and Harden lose a lot of their room to operate.
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Detroit finished the regular season 31-9 at home, and the Cavaliers didn’t win a single game in Toronto in round one. Protecting Little Caesars Arena will be the be-all and end-all for the Pistons.
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Cunningham carried a 37% usage rate against the Magic. The more he’s forced to do it all himself, the better it is for Cleveland. If Duren and Harris back up their first-round form, Detroit have enough balance to avoid needing a nightly miracle from one man.
The Cavaliers can still make this a fight if Mitchell finds top gear again and Mobley starts knocking down threes with regularity — but Detroit have home-court advantage, Ausar Thompson’s defensive legs, and a Cunningham who has come roaring back with something to prove.
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