Two breaks she nearly did not survive
Naomi Osaka is into the US Open last 16. The 13th seed got past Belgium’s Elise Mertens, seeded 23rd, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5 in a third-round match that finished in the small hours of Sunday morning.
The start could hardly have been cleaner. Osaka took the opener 6-3 without much trouble. Then her serve deserted her, and Mertens pounced to level things at a set apiece.
The decider kept turning over. Osaka was broken for 3-2 and found herself chasing. She hit back at 4-4, held her last two service games, and worked a match point at 30-40. Mertens cracked at deuce.
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The court where she has won twice
Flushing Meadows has been kind to her. Titles in 2018 and 2020. Those two New York runs are still the peak of her Grand Slam career.
What followed was bleak. Fourteen majors passed without Osaka getting beyond the third round, a stretch spanning several seasons and shaped by injuries and time away from the tour.
New York changed that last year. She made the semi-finals, her deepest run since the last of those titles, and she looks to be running on the same fuel this time.
Rybakina or Starodubtseva, and a serve that needs fixing
Waiting in the last 16 is the winner of Elena Rybakina against Yuliia Starodubtseva. The second seed on one side of that, which makes it a considerably harder afternoon than the one she just had.
The serve is the issue. Two breaks nearly cost her the Mertens match. Rybakina does not hand those back.
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