Worst to first, says the model
Detroit finished 9-8 last season with half a roster passing through the treatment table. Opta’s projection model has seen enough. It puts the Lions on 10.0 wins in 2026 and first in the NFC North, a division where all four teams believe they can finish top.
The schedule helps. Detroit inherits a fourth-place slate this year, which means dates with the Giants, the Saints and the Cardinals. That alone moves a game or two.
The skill group is the real argument. Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Jameson Williams give Jared Goff a supporting cast ranked third in offensive TRACR. Penei Sewell shifts to left tackle after three consecutive first-team All-Pro seasons on the right, a swap that is never automatic even for a player of that level. The defense sits 17th in the model and is anchored by Aiden Hutchinson, who led the NFL with 116 quarterback pressures last season.
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Chicago is the boldest call in the model
The Bears went 11-6 and won the division. Opta projects them fourth, on 7.6 wins. No other team in the league carries that big a gap between perception and projection.
Two numbers explain it, and neither tends to repeat. Chicago generated a league-high 33 turnovers while ranking 26th in success rate allowed. Takeaways swing wildly from year to year: Green Bay had 31 in 2024 and 14 last season, while Jacksonville went from a league-worst nine to second in the league with 31. Chicago also won seven one-score games and came from behind in the fourth quarter on four occasions.
Caleb Williams is the other variable. His interception count stayed low, but he fumbled nine times, tied for the fourth most, and lost only one of them. He completed 58.1% of his passes, 32nd among 33 qualified quarterbacks, with a well-thrown rate of 76.4%.
Green Bay and Minnesota complete the pile-up
The Packers are projected at 9.4 wins and open without Micah Parsons for at least four games following his ACL tear. Their offense ranks ninth in TRACR, the defense sixth. Running back Josh Jacobs starts the season on the commissioner’s exempt list.
Minnesota sits at 8.3. Kyler Murray takes over from a McCarthy-Wentz-Brosmer group that produced 17 touchdown passes and 24 turnovers. Kevin O’Connell now has to marry his under-center, play-action habits to a quarterback who wants the shotgun.
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