A fresh shake-up at quarterback
Week 3 is shaping up to be a messy one under center. In Atlanta, Michael Penix Jr. gets the nod again on Thursday, a year on from his knee reconstruction. Green Bay, still riding the buzz from that improbable overtime escape last week, remains the favorite at 70.5% according to the Opta model, even with some less-than-convincing efficiency numbers.
In Washington, it is Marcus Mariota who steps in. Jayden Daniels, sidelined by an elbow injury, makes way for a trip to Seattle, where Drew Lock has been catching eyes. His 127.3 efficiency rating and a growing connection with receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba put Seattle in front at 67.3%.
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Kansas City, a historic oddity
The Chiefs have been piling up the numbers. Their 372 rushing yards across two games is their best ground start since 1978. It is the kind of figure that puts Kansas City right back among the best rushing outfits in its recent history. Against Miami and the league’s leakiest pass defense, which has allowed a 57.1% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, the Opta model gives the Chiefs a 74.3% shot at victory.
Buffalo is humming along too. The Bills are averaging 7.07 yards per play, the best mark in the NFL. A trip to the Chargers, who are struggling under new offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel, leaves them as 73.4% favorites.
Purdy and the Arizona hoodoo
San Francisco heads into the weekend with a rare edge. Brock Purdy is completing 80.4% of his passes this season. Against the Cardinals, he has gone 4-1 with 11 touchdown passes and no interceptions. That is the sort of record that carries real weight in the 75.3% win probability handed to the 49ers. On Monday, Philadelphia closes out the week against the Bears, who will be without Caleb Williams, listed as week to week with a hamstring injury.
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