A make-or-break start for Skenes
One win. That’s all the Pittsburgh Pirates need from Thursday’s home finale to lock up their first non-losing season since 2018, and it’s Paul Skenes taking the ball to get it done.
It hasn’t been that kind of year for him. Skenes carries a 10-11 record and a 3.91 ERA into the start, nearly double the 1.97 mark that made him the league’s most feared arm in 2025. His fastball has lost more than a mile per hour off its peak, sitting at 96.8 mph instead of 98.1.
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Blaming the World Baseball Classic
Skenes has an idea why. He pitched for Team USA at the World Baseball Classic in March, and this week he pointed to that stretch as a factor in his drop-off. “Usually, that time of year, you’re kind of ramping up and it’s a little bit slow,” he said. “One live, you’re topping at 97, and then the next you’re 98, 99. And that wasn’t the case this year. Looking back, I don’t think that really helped.”
The dip showed up fast. From May 17 to July 1, Skenes lost every one of nine straight starts, going 0-6 with a 5.36 ERA while Pittsburgh lost right along with him each time he took the ball. He has pitched better since: 4-3 with a 4.31 ERA across his last 13 outings, with the Pirates going 8-5 in that stretch. His most recent turn, against Kansas City on Friday, ended in a no-decision after he allowed five runs on six hits, including two home runs, over six innings.
A rival that has his number
The Cardinals have been a particular problem for him. Skenes is 0-5 with a 2.74 ERA in seven career starts against St. Louis, and his lone outing against them this season went sideways in a hurry: five runs allowed over five innings in Pittsburgh back on April 30. The Cardinals clinched the season series with Wednesday’s 5-1 win and can close it out at 8-5 across 13 meetings between the NL Central rivals.
Standing across from him Thursday is Kyle Leahy (10-5, 3.65 ERA), who is coming off one of his roughest outings of the year: three innings, seven runs allowed, in a loss to Washington on Friday. “It’s disappointing. I didn’t make a lot of great pitches,” Leahy said. He hasn’t pitched more than three innings in any of his last five starts and hasn’t picked up a win since Aug. 18, though he does carry a 2.12 ERA in nine career appearances against Pittsburgh, including two starts this year alone.
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