Thirteen tries, zero wins
Thirteen meetings. Two draws. Eleven defeats. Chelsea are the one WSL side Manchester United have never found a way past, and the two meet again on Sunday at Progress with Unity Stadium in round two. Only four teams in the competition’s history have run into the same opponent that often without ever winning.
Neither club has won yet this season. Chelsea were pegged back to a 1-1 draw by Aston Villa on opening weekend.
Opta’s supercomputer gives Chelsea 48.1% of simulations, United 27.8%, with 24.1% finishing level.
The gap is not confined to this fixture. Since the start of 2023-24, United have won one of 18 league games against the rest of the big four, nine points from a possible 54. Chelsea have taken 36 across the same run.
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Arsenal at 80.7%, and a record that keeps stretching
The weekend’s boldest projection belongs to Arsenal, rated at 80.7% to beat promoted Crystal Palace. The visitors get 7.4%.
Arsenal have gone 19 home WSL matches unbeaten, a club record. Across all competitions the run sits at 18, bettered only once in club history, between August 2011 and October 2012.
Palace have lost all eight of their WSL London derbies, conceding 39 goals at 4.9 a game. No other London club sits above 2.6.
Manchester City are the strongest away pick at 69.9% to win at Aston Villa. Khadija Shaw opened her season with a brace and 11 shots from inside the box against Birmingham, only the third such display in WSL history. She owns another of them, 12 shots against Everton in January 2026.
The rest of the card
Everton go in as favourites against Charlton, 53.2% to 22.9%. History is not kind to the newcomers: the last 10 promoted clubs have all lost their first away game in the WSL, the last exception being Sunderland in 2015.
Liverpool against Tottenham and Birmingham against Brighton are the two tightest, both carrying a 26.6% draw probability. Liverpool are projected at 40.3%, Birmingham at 40.1%.
West Ham host London City Lionesses, who began with Alexia Putellas and a 2-1 win over Manchester United. The visitors lead the projections, 41.4% to 33%.
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