Grimsby lead the projections
League Two kicks off today, and Opta’s supercomputer has picked Grimsby Town to go up. The Mariners took an automatic promotion place in 30.5% of 10,000 simulations, the highest figure in the division.
Grimsby reached the play-off semi-finals last season and lost 4-3 on aggregate to Salford City. They also knocked Manchester United out of the EFL Cup in the second round. David Artell lost striker Jaze Kabia to Leyton Orient this summer and answered by making Andy Cook’s move from Bradford City permanent.
Port Vale sit just behind at 30.1%, and they win the title more often than Grimsby, 11.9% against 11.6%. Jon Brady called his side’s 36 goals last season not good enough. Max Watters arrived from Barnsley and Mo Faal joined on loan from Wrexham to fix that.
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Nobody clears 31%
The striking number is how flat this division looks. No club earned automatic promotion in more than 31% of runs. Every club went up at least 68 times and went down at least 60 times across the 10,000 simulations.
Barnet follow at 27.7% for a top-three finish, having won seven of their last eight games last season. Exeter City, relegated from League One, land there 26.0% of the time. Chesterfield reach 24.1%, Salford 22.1%, Rotherham United 21.3% even after signing Paul Mullin from Wrexham, and Northampton Town 16.9%.
Tranmere carry the biggest risk
At the other end, Tranmere Rovers went down in 29.1% of simulations, more often than any other club. They lost 15 of 17 games in one stretch last season and stayed up anyway. Opta’s expected points model had them six points better off than they deserved, and only Harrogate Town posted a lower expected points total in the division.
Newport County follow at 21.5%, Rochdale at 18.4% and Gillingham at 18.3%. York City, promoted alongside Rochdale after that final-day draw in the National League, go down in 15.0% of runs, a figure shaped by a Power Ranking built solely on non-league opponents.
Rochdale open at Newport at 12.30 today. Oldham Athletic host Port Vale at the same time. The projections date from Wednesday, and they start moving this afternoon.
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