10,000 seasons, and Inter win 3,510 of them
Opta ran the 2026-27 Serie A campaign 10,000 times. Inter came out on top in 35.1% of them. Favourites, then, but nobody should be booking the parade.
The season opens on 22 August with the champions at San Siro against newly promoted Monza.
Cristian Chivu could hardly have asked for a better first year. A cup and league double put him among only five men to win the Scudetto in a debut season at Inter, joining Arpad Weisz (1929-30), Alfredo Foni (1952-53), Giovanni Invernizzi (1970-71) and Jose Mourinho (2008-09).
Inter finished 11 points clear, scored a league-best 89 goals and conceded 35, the fourth-tightest record in the division. John Stones has since arrived on a free from Manchester City to firm up the back line, bringing 17 major honours with him, six of them Premier League titles.
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Como at 13.6% is the number nobody saw coming
The chasing pack has a genuine oddity in it. Como sit second in the model on 13.6%, ahead of Roma (12.7%) and Juventus (11.4%).
The Lombardy club just finished the best season in their history, clinching Champions League football on the final day with a 4-1 win over Cremonese. They also persuaded Nico Paz to stay another year and delay his return to Real Madrid. The Argentine had a hand in 18 goals last season, 12 scored and six created, more than any other midfielder in Serie A.
Roma have not won the thing since Fabio Capello’s side in 2000-01. Gian Piero Gasperini dragged them back into the Champions League for the first time since 2017-18 and past 70 points. Napoli (7.5%) and Atalanta (6.8%) round out the contenders, both with new men in charge: Massimiliano Allegri in Naples, Maurizio Sarri in Bergamo. Only Giovanni Trapattoni, on seven, holds more Scudetti than Allegri.
Monza go down in almost half the simulations
Monza drop in 42.9% of runs, the worst figure in the league. They came up through the Serie B play-offs on a 2-2 aggregate with Catanzaro, decided by league position.
Frosinone are next on 40.7%. The third spot looks like a straight scrap between Lecce (34.3%) and Venezia (33.7%). Lecce managed 28 goals last season, third-fewest in the division, and signed Willem Geubbels to do something about it. Venezia are leaning on Akor Adams, who arrives from Sevilla as their top scorer last season with 10.
Simulations run on 18 August 2026.
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