A promoted side nobody saw coming
Hull City have eight points after four Premier League games. The newcomers have beaten Manchester United and Coventry, then clawed draws against Aston Villa and Chelsea. Nobody had that one pencilled in.
Before the season restarted, plenty were tipping them for a full-blown disaster. Derby County’s unwanted Premier League points record was being dragged back into the conversation. Hull’s promotion had raised eyebrows, and the numbers from their Championship campaign did nothing to calm the nerves.
Those numbers are worth a look. Hull finished 2025-2026 with 73 actual points, but only 53.1 expected points according to Opta’s xPts model, which simulates every match 10,000 times based on the value of the chances created. A gap of 19.9 points, the biggest in the division. Only Sheffield Wednesday were worse on xPts. On the theoretical table, Hull went down.
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29.3% of the ball, and that is the plan
Continuity is the reason this has worked. Hull were not exactly hoovering up possession in the second tier either. Sergej Jakirovic’s side averaged 45.0% possession, fifth-lowest in the division. This season they are down at 29.3%. The drop is real, the approach is not new.
The contrast with Coventry is obvious. The Sky Blues had 55.1% of the ball in the Championship, fourth-best in the league, and have slumped to 38.6%. That is a much harsher change of gear.
Hull are sticking to their plan all the way. They start their passing moves closer to their own goal than any other Premier League team, at 37.7 metres. They have managed one passing move of 10 or more passes that ended in a shot or a touch in the opposition box, the lowest total in the top flight. Their average of 2.5 passes per move is also the lowest.
Solid now, and well aware of what can follow
The rest is graft. Hull rank fourth for duel win rate (53.2%), sixth in the air (52.3%), fifth for tackles attempted and second for long passes.
The historical backdrop offers cautious hope. Only Nottingham Forest in 1994-1995 and Bolton in 2001-2002 have done better than a promoted side with eight points after four matches. None of the promoted teams to hit that mark have gone down by the end of the season.
Jakirovic is already looking ahead. He had promised his squad a week off if they picked up seven or eight points from their first five league games. Target met, with a match to spare. The manager is more worried about the international break, with 13 players set for call-ups.
The club knows how quickly things can turn. In 2013-2014, Hull took 11 points from their first seven matches before ending up in the relegation scrap. In 2014-2015, two defeats in the opening nine league games preceded an 18th-place finish and the drop.
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