Tipped for a record low, sitting on eight points instead
The moment Hull City came up through the play-offs, a decent chunk of English football decided they would be chasing Derby County’s record for the fewest Premier League points ever recorded.
Four games later the Tigers have eight. They beat Manchester United, beat Coventry, drew with Aston Villa and walked out of Stamford Bridge with a 2-2. Mohamed Belloumi scored twice there before Joao Pedro pulled Chelsea level just past the hour. Hull carved out four big chances in that match. Chelsea managed two.
History is on their side too. Only two promoted clubs have started better over four games: Nottingham Forest in 1994-95 and Bolton in 2001-02, both on 10. No promoted side sitting on eight at this point has ever gone down that season.
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Last season’s data had them heading the other way
Their Championship numbers were alarming. Hull finished on 73 points against an expected 53.1 by Opta’s xPts model. Only Sheffield Wednesday, on 30.0, were further adrift of what the underlying performance suggested.
That gap of 19.9 points was the largest in the division. Read cold, it said Hull were closer to League One than to surviving in the Premier League, which is precisely why the doom forecasts arrived.
Nothing about the way they play has changed
Continuity might be the whole answer. Hull never wanted the ball in the Championship either, averaging 45.0% possession, fifth-lowest in the league. Now they are at 29.3%. Lower, yes, but the plan is identical.
Coventry make the point by contrast: 55.1% down to 38.6%. They had to rip up their approach. Hull just leaned harder into theirs.
They are the deepest side in the division, with passing sequences beginning an average 37.7 metres from their own goal. They sit bottom for sequences of 10 or more passes ending in a shot or a touch in the box, on one. Their average of 2.5 passes per sequence is the lowest anywhere in the league.
What replaces the football is graft. They are fourth for duel success at 53.2% and sixth in the air at 52.3%. They are joint fifth for attempted tackles on 65 and second for long balls on 237.
Sergej Jakirovic is not celebrating. The manager has flagged the international break, and the 13 players he lost to it, as a genuine risk. He also knows what this club has done before: third after nine games in 2008-09 and survival by one point, then relegation in 2014-15 after losing just two of the opening nine.
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