Eleven places between the table and the model
Newcastle go into the international break ninth, with a record of two wins, two draws and one defeat. Opta’s expected points model, published today after five matchdays, ranks them 20th. Nothing else in the division comes close to that gap.
The model simulates every match 10,000 times using the expected goals value of each shot, then counts how often a team wins, draws or loses. Newcastle have lost the xG battle in all five of their league games and hold the second-worst expected goal difference in the division at minus 3.76, with only Aston Villa (minus 4.35) below them.
Their actual points total sits 3.99 above the expected one, a smaller overperformance than Manchester City’s 5.82. The positional swing is bigger because the bottom half is tightly packed, where four points move a team through a dozen places. Game state matters too. Newcastle have led for 45.5 per cent of their playing time, the joint second-highest share in the league, which lowers the need to chase and lowers the shot count with it.
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Manchester United fourth, in theory
At the other end of the ledger sits Michael Carrick. United have five points from five games, matching their worst start to a Premier League season since 2014-15, and sit 12th. The model has them fourth on 8.4 expected points, an eight-place underperformance that leads the division.
The raw volume backs them up. United top the Premier League for total shots (113) and touches in the opposition box (182), and their 9.89 xG is the fourth-highest figure in the league. What they have not done is finish. A conversion rate of 7.1 per cent ranks fifth from bottom.
Spurs, Sunderland and the luck of Hull
Tottenham are bottom after five matches for the first time since 2008-09, yet the model places them 12th. Across home defeats to Newcastle (2-0) and Aston Villa (3-2) they generated 2.68 xG while conceding chances worth 1.85.
Sunderland have scored six times from 9.77 xG, an underperformance of 3.77 goals beaten only by Coventry City (3.88). They created 3.57 xG in a 5-3 defeat at Manchester City, the third-highest total recorded by a losing side in a Premier League match since 2013-14. Hull City run the other way: eighth in the real table, 16th on expected points with a projected 5.18.
Arsenal top the expected table with the best xG difference in the league at plus 4.44. The actual table still has them three points behind City.
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