Small brother keeps bullying big brother
Every autumn since Division I football split into two tiers in 1978, at least one FCS program has walked into an FBS stadium and walked out with a win. It is one of the sport’s most dependable traditions, and Opta Analyst expects it to hold up again when the 2026 season kicks off in September.
What tends to surprise people is who does the damage. Last year produced four FCS wins over FBS opposition, yet only Tarleton State turned its result into a ranked, playoff-bound season. Bryant pulled off a win and still finished 3-9. The year before brought seven upsets, and only three of those winners reached the playoffs.
This season could break that habit. The teams best placed to topple an FBS side also happen to be the ones with genuine Top 25 pedigree, which makes the early September schedule worth circling.
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The Bobcats headline the hit list
Start with Montana State at Nevada on September 12. The reigning FCS national champions could open as favourites, just as they were two years ago when they won at New Mexico. Jeff Choate sits at 6-19 across two seasons in Reno and brings back only five starters, a thin base against a program built to win in January.
Tarleton State at Bowling Green on September 5 carries similar weight. The Texans are 2-0 against Group of 6 teams since joining the FCS in 2020, and their last FBS scalp was a 30-27 double-overtime win at Army in August 2025. Illinois State, the 2025 national runners-up with 15 road wins over two seasons, travels to Northern Illinois, where the hosts return no defensive starter.
South Dakota State at Northwestern rounds out the marquee openers. The Big Ten hosts already carry three FCS losses on their record, and the Jackrabbits have won at Montana State, a tougher trip than most FBS road games.
Value hides further down the card
The sneaky picks sit lower. Montana visits Oregon State on September 19 with explosive weapons in quarterback Keali’i Ah Yat and running back Eli Gillman, while Idaho State fancies its chances at Utah State behind 3,000-yard passer Jordan Cooke. Alabama State and West Georgia are each chasing a first-ever FBS win, the kind of result that reshapes a season in a single afternoon.
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