Cardiff hosts the curtain-raiser, and history says ignore it
Arsenal and Manchester City meet at the Principality Stadium today for the 104th FA Community Shield. Arsenal arrive as reigning Premier League champions. City come in as holders of the 2025-26 FA Cup. Whoever walks off with the trophy, the record book suggests it tells you very little about what happens in May.
Thirty-four Community Shields have been played since the Premier League began in 1992-93. Eight of those winners went on to take the league title in the same season, a conversion rate of 24%. The recent run is worse. None of the last six Community Shield winners have finished the campaign as champions, and only one of the last 15 managed it: Manchester City in 2018-19.
The fixture itself dates back to 1908, when it was still the Charity Shield. More than a century later nobody quite agrees whether it counts as competitive. It does put silverware in a cabinet. It has never counted as a major honour.
Try it for $0.99.
Losing in August has been the better omen
The runners-up carry the stronger record. Ten teams have lost the Community Shield and won the Premier League in the same season, two more than the winners have managed. Four of the last seven fit that pattern: Liverpool in 2019-20, then City in 2021-22, 2022-23 and 2023-24.
City finally ended a three-match losing run in the fixture by beating Manchester United on penalties in 2024. They finished that season without the league title. Last year told the same story from the other side: Crystal Palace took the Shield, Arsenal took the Premier League.
The afternoon that proved nothing
August 2022 remains the cleanest illustration. Erling Haaland played 90 minutes of his first game on English soil and did not score. Three shots, one of them an open goal he lifted onto the crossbar. Liverpool won 3-1. Darwin Nunez came off the bench with just over half an hour left, won a penalty and scored the third.
Nine months later Haaland held the record for goals in a single Premier League season with 36, had scored 52 across all competitions and City had completed the treble. Nunez finished with nine league goals, Liverpool came fifth, and the Shield was the only trophy they collected all year.
What the two sides actually get out of today
Enzo Maresca opens his season with City in front of a Cardiff crowd. Arsenal get 90 competitive minutes before the Premier League starts next weekend. Both squads get a look at how their summer business fits together against opposition that will still be there in April.
The trophy is real enough. The forecast people attach to it is not.
Discover the rest of our Football news on MathODDS!
in your pocket.
Real-time notifications & alerts
Leave a Reply