Cardiff, 20 years on
The Community Shield is not being staged at Wembley this year. It is heading back to Cardiff’s Principality Stadium for the first time since 2006.
That is not the only change.
For the first time in 10 seasons, Arsenal will not look across the touchline and see Pep Guardiola. Enzo Maresca has taken his place. He becomes the first Manchester City manager to begin his reign with a Community Shield. The last top-flight coach to face that sort of start was Maurizio Sarri, in August 2018. He lost 2-0. To City.
Guardiola has gone off with an FA Cup and a League Cup in the bag, after leaving the title with Arsenal.
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What the numbers say
Opta has run 10,000 simulations of the match. Arsenal win in normal time in 44.8% of cases. City win in 29.7%. The draw lands in 25.5% of scenarios, which would send both sides straight to penalties.
The Gunners have history on their side. Three Community Shields against City, three wins: 4-0 in 1934, 3-0 in 2014, 4-1 on penalties after a 1-1 draw in 2023. They have 17 in all, with only Manchester United ahead of them on 21.
Mikel Arteta has never lost this fixture. Twice as a player, in 2014 and 2015. Twice as a manager, in 2020 and 2023. The last two went to penalties.
And penalties, of course, are the awkward bit. Arsenal dropped a Champions League final in Budapest against PSG last season. It is still a sore point at the Emirates.
City have fresher reasons to believe
Arsenal may have the long-term edge. The recent picture is far less flattering. City beat the Gunners 2-1 in the league in March, a few weeks after a 2-0 win in the League Cup final. Nico O’Reilly scored twice at Wembley, while Erling Haaland settled it at the Etihad.
Another number matters: in eight of the last 10 Community Shields between the FA Cup winners and the English champions, the cup winners have walked off with the trophy. This time, the FA Cup winners are Manchester City.
There is still one big question mark. Haaland has not played a single pre-season game, having returned late from the United States after Norway’s quarter-final at the tournament. Maresca has a call to make before he even gets to his first kick-off.
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