Arsenal lead the simulations
Opta’s supercomputer ran 10,000 simulations of the 2026-27 Champions League. Arsenal came out on top in 21.2% of them. No other club is higher. Bayern Munich are right behind on 19.9%. Manchester City round out the only other side with more than a 10% chance, at 12%.
The Gunners owe that status to last season. They finished top of the league phase with eight wins from eight, the first time anyone has done that in this format. They then lost the final to PSG on penalties. Opta now has them top of its global Power Ranking.
The schedule is less forgiving this time. Arsenal have to go to Munich. As a result, Bayern finish top of the league phase more often than the London club, 19.8% to 18.5%, and reach the last 16 in 93.5% of simulations, compared with 93.1%.
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PSG still a long way from a third straight crown
PSG have won the last two editions. The model gives them only a 7.7% chance of making it three in a row. A treble of titles is still rare: only Real Madrid have managed it in the Champions League era. Real, Ajax and Bayern had done it in the old European Cup days.
Barcelona are next on 7%. Real Madrid and Liverpool are tied at 5.1% each. Madrid have not lifted a major trophy since their 2023-24 European title and have not gone beyond the quarter-finals since then. Liverpool lean on their three finals between 2017-18 and 2021-22 and are given an 11.2% chance of making the one in June.
Manchester United are back after two years out. Opta gives them a 3.7% chance of winning it, a 37.4% chance of reaching the quarter-finals and 19.1% for the semis. They have not gone beyond the quarter-finals since that final defeat in 2010-11.
No one gets shut out completely
The model found that all 36 teams lift the trophy at least once. Shakhtar Donetsk, Slovan Bratislava and Sabah, the Azerbaijani club making their competition debut, did it just once in 10,000 attempts. That is 0.01%. LASK and Feyenoord rise to 0.03%, while AEK Athens are on 0.06%.
Matchday one kicks off on Tuesday 8 September. The top eight in the league phase go straight through to the last 16. Teams finishing ninth to 24th go into a play-off. The final will be held at Madrid’s Metropolitano on 5 June.
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