One draw, 144 matches, 36 different schedules
The draw for the 2026-27 Champions League league phase, made a few days ago, served up 144 fixtures spread across eight rounds. Every club now knows its eight opponents. No side faces exactly the same set as its neighbour, which makes any straight comparison impossible at a glance.
Opta has run all 36 schedules through its Power Rankings, a model that rates 16,000 teams around the world on the same scale. By averaging the ratings of each club’s eight opponents, you get a difficulty index. The higher the average, the tougher the run.
RC Lens come out of it with an opponent average of 92.1. That makes it the hardest schedule among the genuinely competitive sides in the competition, with Diego Simeone’s Atletico Madrid next at 92.0. For a club getting used to this format, it’s a steep ask.
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City pay the price, Liverpool land well
Among the English sides, Manchester City have drawn the toughest Premier League schedule, on a 91.7 average. Only five clubs fare worse across the whole table. Barcelona and PSG came out of Pot 1, Napoli, 34th in the world, from Pot 3. Enzo Maresca is also heading into his first European campaign in this dugout, and it is the first time City have done it without Pep Guardiola for 11 years.
Aston Villa got the same Barcelona-PSG pairing, with Bruges and Dortmund added on top, statistically the nastiest possible duo from Pot 2. Unai Emery still has mixed memories of the Paris club: in 2024-25, Villa won the second leg of the quarter-final 3-2 at Villa Park, only to go out 5-4 on aggregate.
Liverpool, meanwhile, landed the best English draw with 90.0, the ninth kindest schedule out of the 36. The Reds picked up Atletico and Inter, the two most manageable Pot 1 opponents according to the Power Rankings, and avoided the heavy hitters.
What the numbers say, and what they do not
Arsenal show the limits of the exercise. Bayern away, Real Madrid at home, Dortmund at home: the top end looks nasty. The bottom end is far less alarming, with Sabah, ranked 170th in the world, and Slovan Bratislava, 224th, the two lowest-rated teams in the competition.
Last season, Arsenal finished top of the league phase with one of the softest draws, while Bayern came second with the hardest of the 36. The index points the way, but it does not decide anything. Stuttgart (88.9) and Inter (89.5) start this time with the wind at their backs, with the Milan club mainly hoping to avoid the play-offs after their shock exit against Bodo/Glimt. Manchester United, back in the Champions League for the first time since 2023-24, get Bayern at home and face Como, the toughest Pot 4 opponent.
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