Arsenal edge it, and only just
Ten thousand simulations of the 2026-27 Champions League, and the machine still cannot properly separate the top two. Arsenal come out on top in 21.2% of them. Bayern Munich land on 19.9%. That gap is a rounding error dressed up as a verdict.
Mikel Arteta’s side lost last season’s final to PSG on penalties after winning all eight of their league-phase games, the first team ever to manage that. Opta’s Power Rankings now rate them the strongest side on the planet, which is why they nose ahead. Their league-phase draw is harder this time, and the trip to Munich explains why Bayern, not Arsenal, finish top of the table most often in simulation (19.8% against 18.5%).
Both are near-certainties to survive the 36-team league phase. Bayern get through in 93.5% of runs, Arsenal in 93.1%.
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City carry the heaviest schedule
Manchester City sit third at 12%, the only other club above the 10% line. They won this in 2022-23 and have gone quarter-finals, play-off round, last 16 in the three seasons since. Their league-phase fixture list is the toughest of any contender, and the supercomputer gives them an 86.3% chance of even reaching the last 16.
PSG, champions in each of the last two seasons, are fourth at 7.7%. Three in a row has been done once in the Champions League era, by Real Madrid. Barcelona (7.0%) have not lifted the trophy since 2015. Madrid themselves sit at 5.1%, a number that reflects a drought stretching back to their 2023-24 win and two seasons without reaching a semi-final. Liverpool match them at 5.1% and reach the final in 11.2% of runs.
Manchester United are back after two years away and priced as outsiders at 3.7%, though the model likes them for a quarter-final (37.4%) and even a semi (19.1%). Inter, finalists twice in the last four seasons, sit at 3.4%.
Everyone wins it once
Aston Villa complete the top 10 at 2.0%, and their ragged domestic start after a summer exodus suggests that number is generous. Below them, only Borussia Dortmund (1.8%), Roma (1.4%), Sporting CP (1.4%) and Club Brugge (1.0%) clear a one-in-a-hundred shot.
Run the season ten thousand times and every one of the 36 entrants lifts the trophy at least once. Shakhtar Donetsk, Slovan Bratislava and Azerbaijani debutants Sabah each managed it exactly once, a 0.01% shout. Matchday 1 starts on Tuesday. The final is at the Metropolitano in Madrid on 5 June.
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