Barca open as the machine’s favourite
45.6%. That is how often Barcelona finish top when Opta’s supercomputer runs the 2026-27 season 10,000 times. LaLiga returns this weekend, and the champions start it exactly where they ended the last one, out in front. Barca chase a third title in a row after back-to-back triumphs.
Last spring they buried the race early. A 2-0 win over Real Madrid at Camp Nou on 10 May sealed the crown with three games still to play, and the final gap stretched to eight points. Title number 29. Win this one and it becomes 30. Real sit on 36.
Then there is Rodri. The Spain midfielder, named player of the World Cup this summer after dragging his country to the trophy, is expected in Catalonia. Word is he picked Barca’s project over Real’s money.
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Mourinho walks back into the Bernabeu
Real chose a different path. The Xabi Alonso project is over, and Jose Mourinho is back for a second spell, returning from a road that ran through Roma, Fenerbahce and Benfica. His brief reads simple on paper. Hold a dressing room full of egos together, keep a glittering squad pointed the same way, and do it without tearing the place down.
Opta is not fully sold. Real take the title in 31.0% of runs. Nobody else clears 10%. Both giants land in the top four more than 81% of the time, with Atletico next at 48.6%. Real have not finished outside that top four since 2011-12.
The drop zone already looks grim
Behind the big three, the race for Champions League football stays open. Villarreal (29.5%) and Betis (23.0%) lead the chase, and the Seville club have been absent from the competition since 2004-05.
The bottom is where the model sees pain. Deportivo, back after eight years away, fall in 29.2% of cases. Sevilla follow at 27.7%, weighed down by their books and two grim seasons. Mallorca went down last term with 42 points, a haul that normally keeps a club safe. Another survival scrap looks written into their year.
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