A finalist starting over from scratch
Arsenal open their European campaign at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona. The backdrop matters: the Gunners lost the 2026 final on penalties to PSG, who retained their crown. So they are back with a full season of frustration to turn into fuel.
The numbers from their 2025-2026 run explain why Opta’s supercomputer has them down as favourites. Arsenal were the only side in the entire competition not to lose a game in normal time. Across 15 matches, they shipped just seven goals, the lowest total in the tournament, while allowing only 0.9 expected goals per match, again the best return in the field.
The start to the season backs up the idea. Manchester City were brushed aside 3-0 in the Community Shield, then three league wins followed in a row against Coventry, Aston Villa and Chelsea. Against the Blues, Mikel Arteta even watched his team go behind after two minutes before turning it around through Kai Havertz and Martin Odegaard. Arsenal had not begun a top-flight season with three wins while conceding fewer than two goals since 1924-1925, and not since the Invincibles in 2003-2004 have they looked this composed this early.
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Napoli already need a lift
The picture is less flattering on the Italian side. Last season, Napoli failed to get through the 36-team league phase, finishing with eight points from eight games and four defeats, including two against Manchester City and Chelsea. No Serie A club made it beyond the last 16 either.
Massimiliano Allegri’s start to the new campaign has been a warning sign. One opening league win, then back-to-back defeats against Como and Inter. Against the Nerazzurri, Napoli led 2-0 before throwing it away and losing 3-2. They are also stretched for bodies: Alessandro Buongiorno is out at centre-back and Scott McTominay is sidelined until October after heart surgery.
Arsenal are not at full strength either. William Saliba is out for a long spell with a back injury picked up at the Club World Cup, while Jurrien Timber and Cristhian Mosquera remain doubts. Ezri Konsa is expected to continue in defence.
A strong history, with an Italian caveat
The two clubs have met only four times, most recently in the 2018-2019 Europa League quarter-finals. Arsenal won three of those meetings and kept a clean sheet in each one. But the Gunners have won only one of their last six away matches at an Italian club in the Champions League, and they failed to score in five of them.
Across 10,000 simulations, Opta has Arsenal winning 52.3% of the time, with a draw at 25.3% and Napoli at 22.4%. One name to watch: Odegaard has already scored three goals in four games this season, after managing just one in 36 appearances last term.
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