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France vs Belgium prediction Nations League

France vs Belgium – Free Football Prediction – 05/10/2026

France vs Belgium: Zidane’s leaders host a Belgium side stripped of De Bruyne UEFA Nations League

Belgium beat Turkey 3-0 on Friday and Kevin De Bruyne scored twice. He will not be at the Stade de France on Monday.

De Bruyne and Youri Tielemans are both suspended for this one, according to OneFootball. France are without Dayot Upamecano, sent off against Italy on Friday.

The match is on Monday 5 October at 20:45 Paris time, on matchday four of League A Group 1. France top the group on seven points, Belgium are second on six.

These two met eight days ago in Brussels. Michael Olise scored in the 88th minute and France won 1-0.

That night told you who controls this matchup. France had 63% of the ball and outshot Belgium 16 to 10, while the hosts managed just two shots on target.

The market agrees. France are 1.57 to win, the draw is 4.75 and Belgium 5.90, according to the best odds listed by Bet Experts.

France Analysis France

Zinedine Zidane’s first camp as France head coach has gone almost to plan. A 1-0 win in Turkey, a 1-0 win in Belgium, then a 1-1 draw with Italy on Friday.

The Italy game was a missed chance rather than a warning. France had 66% possession and 13 shots, and Olise opened the scoring with a free-kick on 55 minutes.

Alessandro Bastoni equalised 13 minutes later. Upamecano then picked up a second yellow card late on, and the Bayern defender has since left the camp.

Olise is the player to watch. He has a goal or an assist in all three games under Zidane, and Bulinews counts ten goals for him since the start of the season.

Kylian Mbappe is not part of this one after hurting his left knee while scoring against Turkey. France have coped without their captain, with two wins and a draw.

The real job for Zidane is rebuilding his centre-back pairing. Bet Experts points to Jules Kounde or Chelsea’s Maxence Lacroix, who came on late against Italy, as the options.

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Belgium Analysis Belgium

Mark van Bommel has given Belgium a more direct edge. They opened the group with a 2-0 win over Italy in Rome.

The France game exposed the limits of that approach. Belgium had only 37% possession in Brussels and two shots on target before Olise struck late.

Friday’s win over Turkey restored some confidence. De Bruyne scored on 10 and 59 minutes, Romelu Lukaku added a third on 76, and goalkeeper Senne Lammens made seven saves for the clean sheet.

The problem is what is missing now. Without De Bruyne and Tielemans, Belgium lose the two players who set the tempo in their midfield.

Dodi Lukebakio and Charles De Ketelaere will have to carry more of the creative load. Lukaku remains the reference point up front.

Belgium sit second with a +4 goal difference, three points clear of Italy. A draw in Paris would suit them, and that tells you how they are likely to set up.

Probable lineup France: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup Belgium: Not announced at time of publication

Free Football Prediction: France vs Belgium

Our prediction: France to win (odds 1.57)

France win. They beat Belgium away eight days ago with De Bruyne and Tielemans on the pitch, and both are now suspended.

Losing Upamecano hurts, but France’s control of the ball and Olise’s form outweigh it. Belgium managed two shots on target in the reverse fixture and now lose their best passer and their midfield anchor.

Back France to win at 1.57 (Granawin, as listed by Bet Experts). Expect another tight, controlled game, with the hosts doing enough to stay top.

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Author

  • Photo Pierre Boulben - Editor in chief - Sports

    Former journalist for French newspaper L’équipe and ESPN, I have been the News Editor for MathOdds for the past two years. Mainly in charge of the news and previews coverage as well as our data powered sports trends and cheat-sheets.


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