- 1 Italy vs Turkey: a depleted Turkey walk back into the side that hit them for four
- 2 Italy Analysis
- 3 Turkey Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Italy vs Turkey
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Italy vs Turkey: a depleted Turkey walk back into the side that hit them for four 
Eight days ago in Bursa, Italy were three goals up before half-time. They finished 4-1 winners, and Turkey have not recovered since.
The rematch comes on Monday 5 October at the Stadio Renato Dall’Ara in Bologna. Kick-off is at 20:45 Paris time, on matchday four of League A Group 1 in the Nations League.
The table frames everything. France lead on seven points, Belgium have six, Italy four, and Turkey are bottom with zero.
For Roberto Mancini, back for a second spell in charge of the Azzurri, this is a must-win. Italy still host France in Milan next month and finish their group with a trip to Brussels.
For Vincenzo Montella, it may be about his job. Sports Mole describes him as under fire after a fifth defeat in six games, and another loss would leave Turkey staring at relegation from League A.
Bologna has been a good home for Italy. This will be their 25th match at the ground, where they have recorded 16 wins, 5 draws and 3 defeats.
Italy Analysis 
Mancini’s return started badly. Italy lost 2-0 at home to Belgium in Rome on matchday one.
The response was emphatic. A younger side went to Bursa and won 4-1, with Pio Esposito and Michael Kayode among the scorers.
Then came the Stade de France on Friday. Italy conceded 66% of the possession to France and still came away with a 1-1 draw.
Captain Gianluigi Donnarumma was central to that point, and Alessandro Bastoni equalised on 68 minutes, soon after Michael Olise had put France ahead. It was Bastoni’s second goal in as many games, a rare run for a centre-back.
Mancini has options up front. Pio Esposito has scored at a rate of one goal every other game across 12 caps, while Moise Kean, Gianluca Scamacca and Napoli’s Antonio Vergara, impressive off the bench on his debut, are pushing for a start.
Nicolo Barella and Gianluca Mancini were benched in Paris and could come back in. Rotation is likely, but the spine of Donnarumma, Bastoni, Riccardo Calafiori and Sandro Tonali should stay.
History backs the hosts too. Italy have won three of their last four meetings with Turkey, including a 3-0 win at Euro 2020.
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Turkey Analysis 
Turkey reached League A after back-to-back promotions from the third tier. The step up has been brutal.
They lost 1-0 to France in Kocaeli, 4-1 at home to Italy, then 3-0 in Belgium on Friday. Three games, one goal scored, eight conceded.
The Belgium defeat was not one-sided on shots. Turkey had 20 attempts but were undone by a Kevin De Bruyne double and a late Romelu Lukaku goal.
Now the squad is thinning out. Arda Guler was booked late in Belgium and serves a one-match ban according to Sports Mole, while Galatasaray striker Baris Alper Yilmaz is also suspended.
Hakan Calhanoglu and Kenan Yildiz were already out injured. Merih Demiral keeps the armband in Calhanoglu’s absence.
Montella used a back three in Belgium with Demiral and Abdulkerim Bardakci in the middle. That defence has now shipped seven goals in two games.
Goalkeeper Ugurcan Cakir made six saves on Friday just to keep the score at three. Without Guler’s creativity, it is hard to see where Turkey’s goals come from.
Probable lineup Italy: Donnarumma; Kayode, Scalvini, Bastoni, Calafiori; Barella, Tonali, Frattesi; Vergara, P. Esposito, Kean
Probable lineup Turkey: Cakir; Kabak, Demiral, Celik; Kadioglu, Ozcan, Yuksek, Elmali; Akgun, Akturkoglu; Gul
Free Football Prediction: Italy vs Turkey
Our prediction: Italy to win (odds 1.50)
Italy win, and comfortably. They beat this opponent 4-1 on Turkish soil eight days ago, and Turkey arrive in Bologna weaker than they were in Bursa.
Guler and Baris Alper Yilmaz are suspended, Calhanoglu and Yildiz are injured, and the defence has conceded seven goals in two games. Italy have the home crowd, a back line that held France, and a must-win incentive with France and Belgium still to come.
Back Italy to win at 1.50 (22bet, as listed by Bet Experts). Sports Mole goes the same way and predicts a 2-0 home win.
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