- 1 Portugal vs Norway: nine points, no Ronaldo, still the team to beat
- 2 Portugal Analysis
- 3 Norway Analysis
- 4 Free Football Prediction: Portugal vs Norway
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Portugal vs Norway: nine points, no Ronaldo, still the team to beat 
Three games, three wins, nine points. Portugal sit top of League A Group 4, and they got there while their most famous player walked out of the camp.
Cristiano Ronaldo left the squad after a falling-out with head coach Jorge Jesus before the trip to Denmark. Portugal answered by winning 4-2 in Copenhagen.
Now Norway come to the Estadio do Dragao in Porto on Sunday 4 October. Kick-off is at 20:45 Paris time, on matchday four of the Nations League.
The two sides met eight days ago in Oslo and Portugal won 2-1. That result started a two-game slide for Stale Solbakken’s men, who then lost 2-1 in Wales on Thursday.
History leans hard one way. Portugal have lost just one of their 12 meetings with Norway and have won the last three.
The bookmakers listed by SportyTrader price Portugal between 1.62 and 1.77, with Norway between 3.94 and 5.00. Norway still bring Erling Haaland and Martin Odegaard, so the question is not whether they can hurt Portugal, it is whether they can stop them.
Portugal Analysis 
Portugal are the reigning Nations League champions after beating Spain on penalties in the 2024-25 final. They are also the most successful nation in the competition’s history, with two titles.
This campaign has followed the same script. A 1-0 win over Wales, a 2-1 win in Oslo, then a 4-2 win in Denmark on Thursday.
The Denmark game says plenty about this side. Portugal had only 46% of the ball, yet produced 2.25 xG, 30 touches in the opposition box and 10 shots on target.
Joao Felix is the man in form. He has scored in all three games of this window and sits level with Haaland as joint top scorer in League A on three goals.
Goncalo Ramos has scored in back-to-back games and should lead the line again. Bruno Fernandes shook off an injury scare to star in Copenhagen and already has two assists in the competition.
At home, this team simply does not lose. Portugal are unbeaten in their last 11 home games (10 wins, 1 draw) since a 2-1 friendly defeat to Croatia in June 2024, and have lost only one of their last 13 matches in all competitions.
The only doubt is Francisco Conceicao, who picked up a thigh knock against Norway and needs to be assessed. Joao Neves and Joao Felix are both pushing to start.
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Norway Analysis 
Norway are playing in League A for the first time in their history after winning promotion from League B in 2024-25. They arrived on the back of a World Cup quarter-final run this summer and started by beating Denmark 3-2.
Then the wheels came loose. A 2-1 home defeat to Portugal was followed by a 2-1 loss in Cardiff, leaving them third on three points, six behind the leaders.
The Wales game cost them more than points. Torbjorn Heggem was sent off at the start of the second half and is suspended for Porto, which could open a spot for Marcus Pedersen or Leo Ostigard in central defence.
Julian Ryerson also lasted only 16 minutes in Cardiff before going off injured. SportyTrader expects the right-back to miss this game, which would mean a second change in a back four already under pressure.
Haaland was starved against Wales: five touches in the opposition box, one shot on target and 0.35 xG. Against Portugal last week he hit the target four times, and he has nine shots on target across three Nations League games.
The defensive numbers are the real problem. Each of Norway’s last 11 matches has ended with both teams scoring.
On the road they are not toothless, with five wins from their last eight away games. But Norway have not beaten Portugal since Euro qualifying in September 2010.
Probable lineup Portugal: Costa; Cancelo, Dias, Veiga, Mendes; J. Neves, Vitinha; Neto, Fernandes, Felix; Ramos
Probable lineup Norway: Nyland; Ryerson, Ajer, Pedersen, Wolfe; Odegaard, Berge, Aasgaard; Bobb, Haaland, Nusa
Free Football Prediction: Portugal vs Norway
Our prediction: Portugal to win (odds 1.77)
Portugal win this. They beat Norway in Oslo eight days ago, they have not lost at home since June 2024, and they arrive with three wins from three in this campaign.
Norway are without a suspended centre-back and probably their first-choice right-back, while their defence has conceded in every one of their last 11 games. Felix, Ramos and Fernandes are all firing, and that is too much against a back line in this state.
Haaland can still score, so do not expect a clean sheet for the hosts. Back Portugal to win at 1.77 (22bet, as listed by SportyTrader), with both teams to score as the natural secondary angle.
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