- 1 Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers: Bryce Cotton against a Breakers team finding its feet
- 2 Adelaide 36ers Analysis
- 3 New Zealand Breakers Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers: Bryce Cotton against a Breakers team finding its feet 
The Adelaide 36ers host the New Zealand Breakers at Adelaide Entertainment Centre on Sunday 4 October, with tip-off at 8h00 Paris time. It is the second game of a weekend double for Adelaide and a short trip across the Tasman for the visitors.
This is a Round 3 game in NBL27, and it pits one of the league’s most dangerous scorers against a point guard who just posted a triple-double. Bryce Cotton, a six-time NBL MVP, meets Parker Jackson-Cartwright.
Adelaide are 2-1 after beating Melbourne United 97-95 in Round 1 and losing at Perth. They then picked up their first home win of the season against Cairns.
The Breakers opened with a 95-81 win over Illawarra, dropped two games in a row, then crushed Cairns 98-75 on Wednesday to reach 2-2. They arrive with fresh confidence and a revamped roster under a new coaching staff.
Adelaide have the heavier schedule this weekend, since they play in Wollongong on Friday before returning home. That extra travel is the only real edge the Breakers can lean on.
Both teams have shown they can score in bunches. The question is who stops the other first.
The Breakers set the tone in Round 1 by leading for 38 of 40 minutes against Illawarra. Adelaide answered with a two-point win over United, so neither side lacks nerve.
Adelaide are said to have improved defensively under Trevor Gleeson, and that is exactly the quality a Breakers team that lives by the three will have to solve.
Adelaide 36ers Analysis 
Adelaide’s season so far is a narrow win, a road loss and a home win. The 97-95 opener over United was a coin flip, and the Cairns game gave the crowd a first look at a settled team.
Cotton is the engine again. He scored 62 points with 13 assists and six steals across the two games of Round 2, shooting 18 of 39 from the field.
That volume is the whole point of the 36ers, because Cotton can score on anyone and take the pressure off everyone else. He played his 300th career game in the loss at Perth and has not slowed down.
Nick Rakocevic is the other piece. He had 41 points and 20 rebounds over those two games, and he set the tone early against Cairns.
The one flaw in his weekend was the free-throw line, where he went 1 for 8. A big who gets that many looks at the stripe will fix it.
The injury list is the real concern for coach Gleeson. Isaac Humphries is out with a knee problem, Flynn Cameron is out with an ankle injury until Round 5, and Bul Kuol is out with an ACL tear.
Depth up front is thin, so Rakocevic has to stay on the floor. If he avoids foul trouble, Adelaide have enough to control the glass at home.
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New Zealand Breakers Analysis 
The Breakers are 2-2, and the Cairns win was their cleanest night of the year. They won all four quarters and shot 15 of 27 from three while the Taipans went 7 of 36.
Jackson-Cartwright had 27 points, 10 assists and 10 rebounds in that game. He also moved into fifth on the club’s all-time assist list.
Sam Mennenga is the second weapon, with 27 points and eight rebounds against the Hawks in Round 1 and 18 points, nine boards and six assists against Cairns. Dejan Vasiljevic added 24 points with six threes in that opener.
Ball movement is what makes this group dangerous, since the Breakers had 23 assists on 34 baskets against Cairns. Spacing like that punishes any defence that gambles.
The squad is not at full strength, with Josiah-Jordan James out with a hamstring injury until somewhere between Round 5 and Round 7. His absence trims the wing depth.
The travel is a real cost too. Adelaide’s crowd and Cotton’s shot-making are a hard combination to face on a short week.
Mojave King gave them 14 points off the bench against Cairns, which shows the second unit can chip in. That depth matters when the starters need a breather on a quick turnaround.
The Breakers need a repeat shooting night to keep this close, and a repeat of that is hard to count on away from home.
Probable lineup Adelaide 36ers: Not announced at time of publication
Probable lineup New Zealand Breakers: Not announced at time of publication
Free NBL Prediction: Adelaide 36ers vs New Zealand Breakers
Our prediction: Adelaide 36ers win
Adelaide have Cotton, a home crowd and a defence that has improved under Gleeson. The bookmakers agree, with the 36ers favoured by 5.5 points.
The Breakers shot the lights out last time, but 15 of 27 from three is a night they will struggle to repeat. Adelaide score fast enough to punish any cold spell.
The Humphries absence is a worry, but Rakocevic has already shown he can carry the interior load. Adelaide’s 97-95 opener also proves they can win tight games when it matters.
The Breakers have to hold up defensively against Cotton for 40 minutes, which is a tall order for a roster still learning each other. If Jackson-Cartwright has to match him shot for shot, the visitors run out of fuel late.
Short rest after Friday in Wollongong is the one risk for Adelaide. A home crowd and a point guard in form are enough to cover it.
Back the 36ers to win at home and keep the Breakers chasing.
in your pocket.
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