- 1 Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide 36ers: a winless team finally gets a home floor
- 2 Illawarra Hawks Analysis
- 3 Adelaide 36ers Analysis
- 4 Free NBL Prediction: Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide 36ers
- 5 About our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About visuals
Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide 36ers: a winless team finally gets a home floor 
The Illawarra Hawks host the Adelaide 36ers at WIN Entertainment Centre on Friday 2 October, with tip-off at 11h30 Paris time.
It is the fourth game of Round 3 in the NBL27 regular season, and it lands at completely opposite ends of the ladder.
Illawarra sit tenth and last with a 0-3 record, while Adelaide sit third at 2-1, only percentage behind the Sydney Kings and Brisbane Bullets.
Every one of the Hawks’ three losses has come on the road, so this is the first time all season they get to defend their own building.
Adelaide arrive with the league’s top scorer in their jersey and a bruising away loss to shake off from four days ago.
The ladder gap is stark this early in the season, but three games is a tiny sample, and a home crowd at WIN Entertainment Centre changes the equation for a team that has yet to feel that support.
Both sides are broadcast live on ESPN and Disney+, and the timing gives Adelaide a full recovery week after their overtime-adjacent finish in Perth.
For Illawarra, this is as close to a must-win as Round 3 gets: fall to 0-4 and the conversation about this roster only gets louder.
Illawarra Hawks Analysis 
Illawarra opened the season with a 95-81 loss at New Zealand, then lost at Brisbane, then fell 121-100 at Sydney on Sunday.
Three games, three defeats, all of them away from home, and coach Justin Tatum has already promised changes will come “drastically and swiftly.”
Against the Kings the Hawks were outrebounded 46-25 and let Kendric Davis score 31 points in under 28 minutes, the kind of defensive collapse that explains a 0-3 start.
Kelan Martin and Sam Froling both scored 21 points in that game, and Davo Hickey has been a bright spot all year with a strong all-around line in the round one loss at New Zealand.
Tatum was blunt after the Sydney defeat, admitting his roster is “undermanned” and “hurt” while also carrying fatigue from a scheduling back-to-back, and a first home game of the year is the obvious place to try to stop the bleeding.
The perimeter defense has been a running problem too: Illawarra let New Zealand shoot its way to 95 points in the opener and then watched Sydney hit 10 of 25 from three on the way to 121.
On the other end the Hawks have not been shy about shooting it themselves, but 7 of 31 from deep against the Breakers in round one set the tone for a team still searching for rhythm.
Sam Froling’s foul trouble in that opening loss, picking up two quick whistles and playing under 16 minutes, is exactly the kind of avoidable setback Tatum needs to eliminate against a deeper Adelaide front line.
A winless record after three games does not fix itself overnight, but Illawarra have shown flashes, Hickey’s all-around game and Martin’s scoring chief among them, that suggest this group is better than 0-3.
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Adelaide 36ers Analysis 
Adelaide sit 2-1 after a 98-97 heartbreaker at Perth, where Elijah Pepper’s buzzer-beating three erased a monster 37-point, 9-assist, 7-three night from Bryce Cotton.
Four days later the 36ers bounced back at home, beating Cairns 83-69 behind a 21-point, 12-rebound double-double from Nick Rakocevic and a plus-22 defensive game from Zylan Cheatham.
Cotton is putting up 30.3 points per game to lead the entire competition, and he has scored at that level in every outing so far this season.
The 36ers led that Cairns game 32-17 after the first quarter and never let the margin slip below six points the rest of the way, a sign of a team that can close once it has control.
Adelaide were already missing Isaac Humphries, Flynn Cameron and Bul Kuol against Cairns, and this run of games is testing their depth even as the results keep coming.
Daniel Dillon is also a doubt after picking up a hand injury at practice, which would open more minutes for Alex Mudronja if he remains unavailable for this trip.
Sitting third only on percentage behind Sydney and Brisbane, Adelaide have the profile of a genuine top-four side even with a rotation that has not been at full strength all month.
Cotton’s efficiency stands out as much as his volume, going 8 of 17 overall and 4 of 8 from three against Cairns while also setting up four assists in a controlled, low-turnover performance.
The 36ers have now scored at least 83 points in each of their last two outings, evidence that the offense travels regardless of who is missing from the bench.
Probable lineup Illawarra Hawks: Not announced at time of publication.
Probable lineup Adelaide 36ers: Not announced at time of publication.
Free NBL Prediction: Illawarra Hawks vs Adelaide 36ers
Our prediction: Adelaide 36ers win
Illawarra have lost every game by conceding at least 95 points, and a 36ers side built around the league’s hottest scorer should keep finding its shots against a defense that has not stopped anybody yet.
Adelaide have already proven they can play from behind and still finish games, and Cotton alone is averaging more than enough to carry a rotation missing three regular contributors.
Illawarra’s first home crowd of the year will help, but three straight losses and a coach openly calling his group “a mess” is not the platform to spring an upset against a top-three team.
Rebounding is the number to watch: Illawarra were beaten on the glass in their last outing, and Adelaide have big men in Rakocevic and Cheatham who both delivered double-digit boards in their most recent win.
Expect the total to run high given how porous the Hawks defense has looked through three games and how comfortably Cotton is scoring against every kind of coverage thrown at him.
A home floor can lift a struggling team for a quarter or two, but Adelaide’s firepower and Illawarra’s leaking defense point to the same conclusion by the final buzzer.
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