- 1 Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots: the league’s best defense against an offense in freefall
- 2 Jacksonville Jaguars: leaky on defense, uneven on offense
- 3 New England Patriots: a defense that has not given an inch for two weeks
- 4 NFL Pick Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots: the league’s best defense against an offense in freefall 
The Jacksonville Jaguars and New England Patriots head into Week 3 with identical 1-1 records, but they have gone about it in very different ways.
The Jaguars blew out Cleveland in their opener before slipping up against Denver, despite starting as 2.5-point favorites. New England, by contrast, held Pittsburgh to just 3 points last week, a loud statement from a defense that has set the tone early.
That clash between an erratic Jacksonville offense and a Patriots defense ranked second in the league in EPA per play is the real story at EverBank Stadium.
The market opened with the Patriots as 2.5-point favorites before swinging to the Jaguars, who are now 3-point favorites with the total set at 45.5 points.
That line move needs some context: it is more about home-field edge and the market’s usual faith in home offenses in Week 3 than any firm verdict on the true gap between these two rosters.
But it does overlook one major stat: New England has allowed just 16 points across its first two games. That is the figure pointing this pick toward the Patriots at 19:00 Paris time.
Jacksonville Jaguars: leaky on defense, uneven on offense 
The Jaguars opened the season with a strong showing against Cleveland, only to slide back into old habits a week later against Denver.
Jacksonville has given up 6.1 yards per play to start the season, which leaves it 29th in the league and close to the bottom of the pile.
That defensive weakness comes at the worst possible time against a Patriots team that needs very few chances to turn mistakes into points.
The group is also dealing with uncertainty around DaVon Hamilton, who is questionable for this home game, adding another possible absence on the defensive line.
The Jaguars offense remains the toughest part to read this week. It can look sharp one Sunday and shaky the next, which makes a game like this hard to call when consistency may decide everything.
Under Liam Coen, the Jaguars have a mixed record against the spread after a loss, and that is hardly the kind of trend that screams big bounce-back on Sunday.
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New England Patriots: a defense that has not given an inch for two weeks 
Sixteen points allowed in two games: that is the number that sums up New England’s defensive start, a unit sitting second in the league in EPA per play.
That backbone was enough to suffocate Pittsburgh last week, with the Steelers held to just 3 points for the entire game.
The Patriots offense, though, is still a work in progress. Drake Maye has completed 67.3% of his passes for 386 yards, with one touchdown and four interceptions across his first two outings.
That room for growth on offense is thrown into sharper relief by the loss of A.J. Brown, who is on injured reserve and leaves an already shaky New England passing game even thinner.
Even with those offensive limits, a defense that can hold an opponent to 3 points remains the main reason this team can win without needing to control the game through the air.
The Patriots are also managing the statuses of Mike Onwenu, who is out, plus several other questionable players, but none of that changes the fact that defense is still their calling card in Jacksonville.
NFL Pick Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots
Our pick: New England Patriots to win
Sixteen points allowed in two games, and a defense ranked second in the league in EPA per play: New England has a solid base against a Jaguars offense that still looks unreliable.
Jacksonville’s defense, 29th in the league at 6.1 yards allowed per play, gives up exactly the kind of opening a sharp Patriots unit should be able to exploit.
The line move toward Jacksonville is down more to home-field advantage than any real gap in quality between these two teams, which leaves real value on the Patriots.
Even with Drake Maye’s offensive limitations, New England’s defense carries enough weight to tilt this road game in Florida.
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