- 1 Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens : the NFL lands at the Maracana for a heavyweight shootout
- 2 Dallas Cowboys : the offence is rolling, the defence is the worry
- 3 Baltimore Ravens : Lamar Jackson leads the league’s best offence
- 4 NFL Prediction Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens : the NFL lands at the Maracana for a heavyweight shootout 
For the first time in its history, the NFL sets up at Rio de Janeiro’s Maracana. Ricky Martin will headline the halftime show alongside Brazilian DJ Pedro Sampaio.
On the field, Dallas and Baltimore arrive dead even at 1-1 after two weeks of the regular season.
The Cowboys won at home last time out. The Ravens, meanwhile, let a 17-9 lead slip at home against the New Orleans Saints.
Kickoff is set for 16:25 Washington time, which is 17:25 local time in Rio.
The market has Baltimore as a slight favourite, between -2.5 and -3 points depending on the book, with the total set at 52.5 points. The implied probability gives the Ravens 58% against 42% for the Cowboys.
On recent trends, the Ravens are 3-7 against the spread over their last 10 games, while the Cowboys are 4-6 over the same stretch.
Two of the league’s most productive offences meet two defences that struggle to get a grip on opponents. That is usually a recipe for points, and plenty of them.
This first game in Brazil adds another layer to the occasion, with the time difference, neutral ground and a crowd set to turn the atmosphere electric in one of world football’s most famous stadiums.
Beyond the Brazilian backdrop, the sporting stakes are real. Both franchises need the win early in the race for their respective conference playoff spots.
The stage is set for the full show, with all the off-field theatre and a game that should live up to the billing between two of the league’s established heavyweights.
Dallas Cowboys : the offence is rolling, the defence is the worry 
Dak Prescott sits second in the league in offensive success rate after two weeks.
The Dallas Cowboys are fourth in the NFL in EPA per play and offensive success rate, two measures that show an attack operating at a high level.
The issue is at the other end. The Cowboys have allowed the second-worst EPA per pass in the entire league.
Dallas have managed only two sacks in two games, a puny return for a defence that is meant to protect leads, not hand them away.
That defensive softness, ranked 29th in opponent EPA and 31st in opponent success rate, points straight to a game with serious offensive volume.
Against an attack as complete as Baltimore’s, that kind of leakiness could leave the Texans’ back end under constant pressure.
Dallas’ offensive line also has to step up, because Prescott’s production depends on the protection he gets against an aggressive Ravens front.
CeeDee Lamb remains Prescott’s preferred target in this offence, and that could matter in the tightest moments.
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Baltimore Ravens : Lamar Jackson leads the league’s best offence 
Lamar Jackson has completed 67.9% of his passes for 559 yards and two touchdowns after two weeks, averaging 10 yards per attempt.
He has also added 74 rushing yards and a score, underlining his dual-threat threat to the Dallas defence.
Derrick Henry is averaging 5.3 yards per carry, and that kind of power wears teams down over the course of a game.
Baltimore boasts the best net yards per play differential in the NFL, with top-six rankings in EPA and offensive success rate.
The weak spot is on defence, where the Ravens allowed Saints quarterback Tyler Shough to complete 79.4% of his passes at 7.4 yards per attempt in last week’s loss.
Zay Flowers is also one to watch after a recent injury concern, and his availability could shape Lamar Jackson’s options in the passing game.
Despite that defeat to the Saints, Baltimore still own one of the best offensive records in the league since opening day.
The Jackson-Henry combo remains one of the most feared in football, on the ground and through the air, and it is a major weapon against a shaky Texas defence.
Probable Dallas Cowboys line-up : Dak Prescott confirmed as starting quarterback.
Probable Baltimore Ravens line-up : Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry confirmed starters. Zay Flowers status to be confirmed.
NFL Prediction Dallas Cowboys vs Baltimore Ravens
Our prediction : over 52.5 points in the game
Two top-six offences in EPA per play meet two soft defences on both sides.
The recent record backs that up: the over has landed in nine of the Cowboys’ last 10 games and in four of the last five meetings between these two teams.
With just two sacks in two games for Dallas and a Ravens defence already picked apart by the Saints, neither back line inspires much faith in a low-scoring grind.
The usual price for this sort of total sits around 1.90, comfortably above the minimum break-even level for a bet like this.
With Dak Prescott clicking, Lamar Jackson attacking from every angle and Derrick Henry battering defences on the ground, this NFL version of the Maracana looks primed for an offensive show.
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