- 1 Italy vs Belgium: three missed World Cups on one side, a quarter-final on the other, and the numbers set the scene
- 2 Italy: a fresh start with Mancini and a European Championship core
- 3 Belgium: a World Cup that looked fine on paper, two draws and a rescue job four minutes from the end
- 4 Football prediction Italy vs Belgium
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Italy vs Belgium: three missed World Cups on one side, a quarter-final on the other, and the numbers set the scene 
Italy have not played at the last three World Cups. Belgium come in off a quarter-final defeat, a 2-1 loss to Spain, who went on to become world champions.
The two teams open Group A1 of the Nations League on Friday 25 September at 20:45 Paris time, at the Stadio Olimpico in Rome.
The group also includes France and Turkey. UEFA ranked Italy fifth in the overall standings used for the draw, Belgium tenth, which put them in pots 2 and 3 respectively.
Roberto Mancini took back charge of the Azzurri at the end of July, three years after quitting the same job. His first squad includes 34 players, with nine called up for the first time.
Mark van Bommel, meanwhile, faces a packed camp: Italy on 25 September, then France on 28 September, Turkey on 2 October and France again on 5 October.
Two very different paths, then, but the same starting point on the board. Nobody has a point yet in this group, and matchday one carries serious weight in a six-game format.
This is the fifth edition of the Nations League, with Portugal holding the trophy after the 2025 finals. Neither Italy nor Belgium has ever won any of the four editions played so far.
Italy: a fresh start with Mancini and a European Championship core 
Three straight World Cups without Italy: 2018, 2022 and 2026. For a nation with that kind of pedigree, that is a brutal run.
So this visit from Belgium marks the real restart. Mancini has not led the Azzurri since he resigned in 2023, and he returns with the credit of having delivered the European title.
The backbone of that triumph is still there. Gianluigi Donnarumma, Giovanni Di Lorenzo, Nicolo Barella and Bryan Cristante are all in the squad announced on 18 September.
The coach has gone wide with 34 names. Nine players are getting their first call-up, including Sebastiano Esposito, a clear sign he wants to widen the pool before the 2027 targets come into view.
UEFA’s ranking puts Italy fifth overall, ahead of Belgium. On paper, they are the better-ranked side of the two meeting in Rome on Friday.
The schedule also helps them. Italy start at home, then go to Turkey on 28 September before hosting the Turks again on 5 October: three of their first four matches are against opponents they should expect to handle, or at least fancy against.
The mood inside the camp has changed too. Mancini’s return at the end of July ended weeks of noise behind the scenes around the national team.
The stakes are plain from the off: the top two go through to the quarter-finals in March 2027, while the bottom side drops straight into League B. For an Azzurri side that has not been to a World Cup since 2014, there is little room for slip-ups.
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Belgium: a World Cup that looked fine on paper, two draws and a rescue job four minutes from the end 
Belgium reached the quarter-finals of the 2026 World Cup. The route there looked a lot less polished than the headline result.
The Red Devils opened with a 1-1 draw against Egypt, then a 0-0 draw with Iran. Two matches, two points, no wins, before a 5-1 rout of New Zealand put them back on track.
Their last-16 tie with Senegal summed up Belgium’s tournament. 2-0 down in the 86th minute, they equalised within three minutes and then snatched a 3-2 win after extra time, thanks to a VAR-awarded penalty.
What came next was far cleaner: a 4-1 win over the United States in the last 16, with a performance that finally matched the talent in the squad. That was Belgium’s best showing of the summer.
The quarter-final against Spain came down to a single moment. At 1-1 and just seconds from extra time, Senne Lammens, on for the injured Thibaut Courtois, spilled a shot from 25 metres and Mikel Merino turned it home in the 88th minute.
Van Bommel heads to Rome with a squad capable of brilliance and sloppiness in equal measure. Those first two World Cup group games, with no wins to show for them, are the clearest warning sign ahead of this trip.
Belgium’s World Cup record over six matches reads three wins, two draws and one defeat. They scored 14 and conceded seven, including two against the eventual world champions.
Van Bommel has four games crammed into this camp alone, including two against France. That workload means rotation, and what happens in Rome will shape the next ten days.
Probable Italy line-up: Not available at the time of publication.
Probable Belgium line-up: Not available at the time of publication.
Football prediction Italy vs Belgium
Our prediction: Italy to win
Belgium failed to win either of their first two World Cup matches against Egypt and Iran, both sides a step below Italy. That kind of flat start matters in a Nations League opener.
Italy are at home in the Stadio Olimpico, with their European Championship core still in place and a coach who knows the setup. The market has them as favourites at around 2.10, with the draw priced at 3.45.
The 2.5 goals line points to a tight game, and that is exactly the sort of match Italy have tended to handle well under Mancini. We are backing an Italy win.
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