- 1 Japan vs Uruguay: Forlan steps into the dugout as Japan hit top gear
- 2 Japan: Asia’s standard bearers, and then some
- 3 Uruguay: a Celeste rebuild from the ground up
- 4 Football Prediction Japan vs Uruguay
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Japan vs Uruguay: Forlan steps into the dugout as Japan hit top gear 
Japan host Uruguay on Thursday at 12:05 Paris time at Q&A Stadium Miyagi in Rifu. A morning kick-off in this part of the world, an evening one in Japan.
This one opens the 2026 Kirin Challenge Cup, Japan’s autumn international window. The Japanese federation has named a 31-man squad for the run of games.
The schedule runs through to October 5 with Venezuela, Ecuador, and then Panama or New Zealand on the menu. In other words, Japan plan to rotate and keep their options wide open.
For Uruguay, though, the headline is elsewhere: Diego Forlan takes charge of his first match as Celeste boss. The legendary striker is crossing to the other side of the touchline.
Both sides come out of the same World Cup with very different memories. Japan made it through the first round by pushing the Netherlands all the way, while Uruguay were packing their bags after three games.
So this friendly looks like a proper test for a Celeste side still trying to rebuild itself. Across from them stands a Japan team now firmly established among the world’s best.
Rifu does not often see the Blue Samurai and the crowd will be sold out. The setting strongly favours the home side.
Japan come into this one on a serious run against the big boys. Uruguay, by contrast, are still waiting for a win that feels like ages ago.
The two coaches are walking into this match with very different priorities. One is fine-tuning. The other is starting from scratch.
Japan: Asia’s standard bearers, and then some 
The 2026 World Cup underlined what the football world already suspected. Japan held the Netherlands to a 2-2 draw in their opening game.
The second match turned into a statement: a 4-0 rout of Tunisia. A scoreline that hit the Eagles of Carthage hard, both on the table and in the head.
A 1-1 draw with Sweden then sealed qualification with five points. Their run ended on June 29 against Brazil, beaten 2-1 by the eventual semi-finalists.
Spring had already been a show. A 1-0 win in Scotland at the end of March, then another 1-0 victory in England three days later.
Add a 1-0 against Iceland at the end of May and a 3-2 win over Brazil in October 2025. Japan are now beating major nations without causing much of a stir.
The defence remains this group’s biggest strength. Across their last eight recorded matches, the Blue Samurai have only conceded more than once against the Netherlands and Brazil.
With 31 players in the squad, competition is fierce and nobody will be taking it easy. That is exactly what makes this Japan side so awkward to handle, even in a friendly.
The 4-0 against Tunisia was the turning point for Japan at the World Cup. It meant they could approach their third game without doing any maths.
Since March, the Blue Samurai have lost just once, to Brazil. Four wins and two draws complete the picture over that stretch.
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The Japanese crowd will be out in force in Rifu, a city that rarely hosts the national team. The atmosphere should weigh heavily on a Celeste side that already looks fragile mentally.
Japan will also benefit from freshness: Uruguay have travelled all the way from South America after a long journey. That matters in this sort of fixture.
Uruguay: a Celeste rebuild from the ground up 
Uruguay’s World Cup lasted three matches and brought two points. A 1-1 draw with Saudi Arabia, a 2-2 against Cape Verde, then a 1-0 defeat to Spain.
No wins, an early exit, and a hard lesson in their failure to finish games. Scoring five goals should have been enough to do better.
The winless run goes back much further than the summer. You have to go back to October 13, 2025 and a 2-1 victory in Uzbekistan to find their last success.
Since then, Celeste were thumped 5-1 in the United States in November 2025. On that day, the structure simply disappeared.
The March outings showed a side that was more organised but lacked a cutting edge. A 1-1 draw in England, then a 0-0 in Algeria.
Diego Forlan arrives with the aura of a national icon, but with no experience in a top-level dugout. His first real job is getting the attack moving.
A trip to Japan after a long journey is hardly the ideal welcome. Celeste could spend a lot of time chasing shadows.
Seven games without a win: that is the run Forlan has to end in his very first outing. The weight of the Uruguay shirt leaves very little room for excuses.
The 2-2 draw with Cape Verde at the World Cup may well have cost them qualification. Two points thrown away against an opponent well within Celeste’s reach.
Probable Japan lineup: Not released at the time of publication.
Probable Uruguay lineup: Not released at the time of publication.
Football Prediction Japan vs Uruguay
Our prediction: Japan to win
Japan have beaten England, Scotland and Brazil over the past 12 months, and have lost only once since March. Uruguay have not won a match since October 13, 2025.
The time difference, the travel, and a coach taking charge of his first match all work against Celeste. Against a Japan side that gives up very little, they will need to be close to perfect.
The Blue Samurai are used to treating these September fixtures seriously in front of their own fans. Back Japan to take the win.
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