Manchester City and Arsenal in a strong spot
Manchester City face Sunderland with a 73.3% chance of winning. That is the highest probability of the round, according to Opta’s supercomputer. The Citizens have won four out of four in the Premier League. They have lost only two of their last 30 top-flight matches, winning 20 and drawing eight.
The history books back them up too. City are unbeaten in their 14 home Premier League games against Sunderland, with 12 wins and two draws. Their last home defeat to the club came in January 1998. Sunderland have not beaten a top-two side in 17 league matches. Opta gives them a 10.6% chance of victory and a 16.1% chance of a draw.
Arsenal travel to Brighton with a 55.6% chance of victory. That is the best away win probability of the weekend. The Gunners have won their last nine league games, conceding only two goals, and have given up just 2.7 expected goals this season. Only twice in their history have they put together 10 straight wins in the top flight, in 1998 and 2002. Both runs ended with a title.
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Tottenham and Aston Villa in the mire
Tottenham vs Aston Villa is the tightest call of the round. Opta gives it a 24.7% chance of ending level, the highest draw probability in round five. Both sides are still chasing their first win of the season.
Tottenham have not scored a single goal in four league matches. That is a first for the club. Only Crystal Palace have done worse in the Premier League, going seven games without a goal to start the 2017-18 season. The Spurs sit 19th for expected goals with 3.45, Villa 20th with 3.39.
Villa, meanwhile, could start a season with five games without a win for the fourth time in their history, after 1919-20, 1964-65 and 2025-26. Even so, Opta still has Tottenham as favourites at 49.5%, with Unai Emery’s side on 25.8%.
Hull City and Leeds set the pace
Hull City are still unbeaten after four rounds. The promoted side could become the first newly promoted team to avoid defeat in their first five matches since Portsmouth in 2003-04. Ten points or more from that run would also make them the first promoted side to manage it since West Ham in 2005-06. The Tigers head to Newcastle, where they have never lost in three Premier League visits. Opta is staying cautious and has the Magpies as favourites at 58.5%, with Hull on 20.6%.
Leeds host Crystal Palace with a 53.3% chance of winning and are enjoying their best start to a top-flight season since 2001-02. Coventry, still without a point or a goal, have only a 19.5% chance of winning at Nottingham Forest.
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