Match context — San Franisco 49ers vs Tennessee Titans 
The Tennessee Titans travel to Santa Clara to face the San Francisco 49ers in Week 15. On paper it looks one-sided: San Francisco are running the NFC, Tennessee are having a rough season. Still, the spread bookmakers offer feels oversized given recent momentum. Something’s off. Don’t bet on the obvious.
Cam Ward finally showing encouraging signs 
His rookie year hasn’t been flashy, but Ward is improving. Over the last four weeks, against decent defenses (Texans, Seahawks, Jaguars, Browns), he’s completed 62,1 % of his passes for four touchdowns and one interception. He’s also become a genuine running threat — 6,8 yards per carry on average — and he’s handling pressure better: just three sacks allowed in the last two games.
Yes, his downfield numbers are modest (4,9 yards per attempt). But he’s more controlled now. Short throws. Uses his legs to keep drives alive. Against a 49ers defense missing several starters for weeks, that’s a much friendlier setup.
San Francisco less dominant than they look 
The 49ers have a good record, but their recent schedule hasn’t been brutal. The offense hasn’t exploded week after week. The defense has real holes, especially against the pass and on extended plays. Tennessee, for all the losses, defends hard and keeps punching. They’re often still in the game against better teams.
Free Pick Green Bay Packers vs Minnesota Vikings
Pick: Tennessee Titans +12,5
With a rookie QB who’s getting better, a scrappy defense and a squad playing with no pressure, Tennessee can stay competitive. San Francisco should win. But the margin could be a lot tighter than the books expect.
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