82.9%, and nobody else is close
San Francisco carry the highest win probability of any team in Week 2. Opta’s model puts the Niners at 82.9% against Miami. The two clubs arrived here by opposite routes: the 49ers flew home from Australia with a 27-7 win over the Rams in their pocket, while the Dolphins sit dead last in Opta’s overall team rankings.
Brock Purdy went 25 of 34 for 205 yards and three scores in that opener. Mike Evans and Deebo Samuel each caught six balls and found the end zone. Christian McCaffrey touched it just 10 times. He averaged 4.60 yards before contact anyway, second best in Week 1 among backs with double-digit carries.
Baltimore come next at 73.0% over New Orleans, then Tampa Bay at 71.9% against Cleveland and the Rams at 70.6% versus the Giants.
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One game the model refuses to call
Carolina against Atlanta is the only genuine coin flip on the board, and even that leans Panthers by a hair: 51.9%. Read the fine print, though. Carolina just got run over 59-37 at home by Chicago, coughing up 552 yards and watching the Bears convert 10 of 14 third downs.
Bryce Young threw for 361 yards and three touchdowns in that loss, at 9.76 yards an attempt. Context for the number: he averaged 6.30 per pass in 2025, 30th among 33 qualified quarterbacks. Atlanta were no better off. They fell 20-13 to Pittsburgh without once reaching the red zone, and Cooper Rush, pressed into duty after Tua Tagovailoa was ruled out, walked away with a 51.9 passer rating.
Where the rest of the board sits
Buffalo open the week Thursday night at 69.8%. The Chargers sit at 69.5% for the California derby with Las Vegas. Kansas City land at 67.4% against Indianapolis, fresh off a 31-10 win in Denver built on 220 rushing yards, the most the Broncos have surrendered since 2023. Chicago get 64.9% over Minnesota. Philadelphia 64.4% against Tennessee, New England 63.2% against Pittsburgh.
Then the margins get thin. Houston are barely ahead of Cincinnati at 57.7%. Seattle edge Arizona at 57.1%. Denver scrape past Jacksonville at 54.1%. Green Bay, who blew a 17-point lead against Minnesota, are still favored at the Jets, but only at 54.5%.
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