Match context — Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens 
Bengals bossing it? Lamar Jackson’s return was supposed to kick Baltimore back into gear, but one problem won’t go away: the Ravens’ defence keeps getting exposed week after week. It’s not a fluke anymore; it’s a pattern. Over the last five weeks Baltimore sit outside the top 15 in defensive DVOA, and that Thanksgiving trainwreck against Cincinnati (32 points conceded) still hurts.
Across the field, Cincinnati are fighting for survival. Their offence has clearly changed since Joe Burrow came back: 34 points in Buffalo despite the loss, rhythm, aggression, and above all an ability to punish every mistake. Even if the Bengals’ defence is fragile, the offensive momentum gap is real.
Baltimore, meanwhile, haven’t been moving the ball like you’d expect. Since Week 10 the Ravens have been near the bottom offensively, sputtering drives, red zone errors and turnovers. Morale won’t hide repeated flaws.
Keys to the clash — Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens 
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The central point’s simple: Baltimore’s defence vs Joe Burrow. The Ravens haven’t shown any knack for containing structured offences, let alone a quarterback who reads pressure and exploits every mismatch. Without a major adjustment the Bengals will keep moving in long stretches and control the tempo.
Offensively Baltimore will need to be near-perfect. But with shaky protection, a less dominant run game and a Lamar Jackson still limited physically, there’s no margin. If it becomes a drive-for-drive scrap, the edge goes to the more reliable arm — Burrow’s.
Free Pick Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens
Pick: Cincinnati Bengals +2,5
Yes, the line smells like a trap. Yes, Baltimore are at home and “have to” react to the Bengals. But as long as that defence stays this leaky, you can’t trust them. Cincinnati have the edge at the key spot, the offensive momentum, and they’ve already proved they can beat them.
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