- 1 Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders: seven-point spread set with a 43.5 total
- 2 Los Angeles Chargers: defence ranked 27th after Week 1
- 3 Las Vegas Raiders: three touchdowns for Kirk Cousins and a front seven getting praise
- 4 NFL Pick Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information moves fast
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders: seven-point spread set with a 43.5 total 
The books have made the Chargers seven-point favorites, with the total lined at 43.5. That’s an unusual setup for an AFC West rivalry game.
A total that low points to a tight, grind-it-out contest where every drive matters. A seven-point spread says the other thing entirely: a clean home win.
Kickoff is set for Sunday, 20 September at 10:05 p.m. Paris time at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood. These two teams come in on opposite tracks.
Las Vegas opened with a 27-13 win over Miami at Allegiant Stadium. The Chargers were beaten 26-14 by Arizona, already under the roof at home.
Kirk Cousins threw three touchdown passes in that season-opening win, despite managing just 160 passing yards. He went 21-of-30 with two interceptions and a 88.2 rating.
Justin Herbert finished with 209 yards, 17 completions from 27 attempts and one interception. His 83.7 rating still trailed his counterpart, even with the prettier raw numbers.
The gap was decided somewhere other than at quarterback. The defensive rankings released after Week 1 help explain why.
Los Angeles Chargers: defence ranked 27th after Week 1 
The Chargers opened their season in Inglewood against Arizona. The 26-14 loss was a poor start for a team billed as a playoff contender.
Justin Herbert produced 7.7 yards per pass attempt, which looks decent on paper. The output still stopped at 14 points.
Last season had already exposed the structural issue with this offence. Herbert took 54 sacks, a career high, and that shaped the entire offseason.
Mike McDaniel has taken charge of the California sideline to start a new era. The first home test did not deliver the answers they wanted.
The post-Week 1 defensive numbers are the ugly part. The Chargers sit 27th in the league in defensive DVOA.
They are 23rd in opponent EPA per play and 25th in defensive success rate. Three different metrics, same blunt conclusion.
No major injury issues have been reported around Justin Herbert ahead of this home date. The offensive line, though, remains the big concern.
One league coach summed it up by pointing to a disciplined opponent with an experienced quarterback and a decent defensive front. That doesn’t sound like a team you’re happy to spot seven points to.
SoFi Stadium gets a second straight Chargers home game. Their first two games of the season are both in the same building, which makes that opening loss even more expensive.
The 14 points against Arizona were the franchise’s lowest opening-week total. The offence never found any real rhythm.
There is room for improvement on both sides of the ball for Mike McDaniel and his Chargers. They need to show it now, in the second straight home date.
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Las Vegas Raiders: three touchdowns for Kirk Cousins and a front seven getting praise 
Las Vegas started its season with a convincing 27-13 win over Miami. It was built on efficiency, not volume.
Kirk Cousins threw for only 160 yards, but he turned that into three touchdown passes. The veteran completed 21 of 30 attempts for an 88.2 rating.
Two interceptions do leave some room for improvement. Still, the red-zone finishing more than made up for the lack of deep-ball fireworks.
Ashton Jeanty also made his mark in that first outing. The run game gave the Raiders the kind of control Miami never really found.
The starting quarterback spot was not settled as recently as three weeks ago. Klint Kubiak wrapped up his first preseason in Nevada at the end of August 2026 without choosing between Cousins and Fernando Mendoza.
That question looks answered now after a three-touchdown outing. Stability under centre changes how this trip to California looks.
The defensive front remains this team’s strongest card. Maxx Crosby made it clear in spring 2026 that, if he was moving, he only wanted Las Vegas.
The pass rusher had already shut the door after his move to Baltimore fell through. His presence is a serious problem for an opposing offensive line that already looks shaky.
The Raiders come in with a rare edge for a seven-point underdog. The battle in the trenches leans their way.
Still, the first road game of the season against the Chargers is a different test. Allegiant Stadium was the perfect stage to get Cousins rolling.
SoFi Stadium will likely be split, as it often is for Chargers home games. That cuts into the home-field edge priced into the number.
NFL Pick Los Angeles Chargers vs Las Vegas Raiders
Our pick: Las Vegas Raiders with a +6.5 handicap against the Chargers
Los Angeles is coming off a home loss with a defence ranked 27th in DVOA, 23rd in opponent EPA and 25th in success rate. Three separate metrics point to the same weak spot for the Chargers.
Las Vegas won by 14 points with an experienced quarterback and a front led by Maxx Crosby, against an offensive line that gave up 54 sacks on Justin Herbert last season. The 43.5-point total also points to a close game.
A 6.5-point cushion is too big in an AFC West derby between a team that just lost at home and one that already has momentum. Take the Raiders with the points against these Chargers, who clearly haven’t got the memo yet.
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