- 1 Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders: both sides take an NFC East hit to kick off the season
- 2 Dallas Cowboys: 175 passing yards and a growing injury list
- 3 Washington Commanders: fifth in the league in rushing success rate
- 4 NFL Prediction Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders: both sides take an NFC East hit to kick off the season 
The Cowboys and Commanders both lost their opener, and both defeats came against division rivals. So the NFC East has started with an early in-house scrap.
Dallas fell 28-20 on the road at the New York Giants, in the Sunday night closer. Washington went down 24-22 in Philadelphia on the same day.
Back to Arlington for the Cowboys on Sunday 20 September at 22:25 (Paris time). In that giant stadium, the one that watched France collapse against Spain at the last World Cup, Dallas now has the chance to lay down the law at home.
What the market is telling us:
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Texas edge: The bookmakers have Dallas as the clear favourite, with the spread sitting between -3.5 and -4.5 points. A solid cushion, and a sign the hosts are expected to get the job done.
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Points expected in bunches: With the total set at 51.5, Las Vegas is bracing for a shootout and a busy scoreboard.
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Pressure on Dallas: At home, the Cowboys can’t afford a slip-up if they want to justify their favourite tag and calm the nerves early.
That number tells you plenty about how the bookmakers see it. Neither defence looked convincing in week one.
Washington lost by two after a failed two-point conversion late on that would have sent the game to overtime. Dallas, meanwhile, allowed 28 points to a quarterback making his first start under a new staff.
Jaxson Dart threw for 230 yards and three touchdown passes, completing 23 of 29 attempts. The Giants quarterback also added 54 rushing yards.
Dallas Cowboys: 175 passing yards and a growing injury list 
Dak Prescott finished the opening night with 22 completions from 34 attempts. His 175-yard total is modest, to put it kindly, for a primetime outing.
Two touchdown passes and one interception rounded out his line. Dallas never really controlled the clock.
The loss cost them more than just a result. Demarvion Overshown picked up a hamstring injury and will miss one to two weeks.
The linebacker is a key part of the defensive plan. Jack Sanborn and Marshawn Kneeland are also listed as questionable for the visit from Washington.
The offence has not escaped the damage either. CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin are on the injury report, along with offensive tackle Ajani Cornelius.
The offensive line already has a long-term absence to deal with. Tyler Smith had surgery in early September 2026 to repair a torn ligament in his left thumb, then went onto injured reserve.
Running back Malik Davis underwent hip surgery on 12 September 2026 after leaving practice in a cart. That cuts the backfield rotation down even further.
Dallas added to its front seven in the off-season by signing Von Miller in August 2026. The franchise also landed offensive tackle Broderick Jones from Pittsburgh in late August 2026 in a trade involving three 2027 draft picks.
George Pickens is also playing this season on the franchise tag after making his decision in July 2026. The receiver remains a major target for Prescott.
Dallas is back home for its first game of the season after that miserable opener in New York. AT&T Stadium now becomes the place where the Texans need to stop the rot.
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Washington Commanders: fifth in the league in rushing success rate 
Washington arrived in Philadelphia as a six-point underdog. The 24-22 final backed up a performance that was far better than expected.
Jayden Daniels’ team impressed on the ground against one of the conference’s best defences. It finished the day 13th in the league in rushing EPA per play.
Its success rate on those same plays ranks fifth, a mark that is well beyond what most had expected. Control of the tempo nearly got the job done.
The failed two-point conversion at the death denied Washington a shot at overtime. The final score stings, but the performance gives plenty of encouragement.
Terry McLaurin is also listed as questionable for this trip to Texas because of a quad issue. If he misses out, that would be a major blow to the vertical game.
Dorance Armstrong, Eddie Goldman, Noah Brown and Kain Medrano are also on the injury report. So the defensive group heads in with a few doubts hanging over it.
The offensive line has been without its main protector since the off-season. Laremy Tunsil had surgery in August 2026 after tearing a triceps, which pushed the franchise to bring in several veterans during camp.
Washington, though, released D.J. Humphries on 11 September 2026, 16 days after signing him and just two days before its opener. The offensive tackle never played a snap for the team.
At receiver, Stefon Diggs joined in August 2026 on a one-year deal worth up to $12 million. The four-time Pro Bowler gives Daniels another live target.
Washington is now heading into its second straight divisional game after that trip to Philadelphia. There is no soft landing here.
The run game will be the key to this one against Dallas. That was the area where Washington held up best in week one.
NFL Prediction Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders
Our prediction: Washington Commanders with a +4.5 handicap against the Cowboys
Washington lost by two in Philadelphia after a missed two-point conversion in the final moments. A team that can go toe-to-toe with the Eagles does not suddenly get blown out by five in Arlington.
The Commanders’ running game ranks fifth in the league by success rate, which helps them control possession and shorten the contest. Dallas, by contrast, gave up 28 points and lost Demarvion Overshown for one to two weeks.
With CeeDee Lamb and KaVontae Turpin uncertain for the Texans, the 4.5-point line looks too steep for a divisional clash. We are taking Washington with the points against Dallas.
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