- 1 New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights: back at Eden Park 12 years on, with a season on the line
- 2 New Zealand Warriors, plenty of points from the boot and a finish that fell apart
- 3 Newcastle Knights, a defence that shut South Sydney down
- 4 NRL Prediction New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
- 5 First, a note on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights: back at Eden Park 12 years on, with a season on the line 
The Warriors have not played a NRL game at Eden Park since 2014. Now they’re back for a straight knockout semi-final against Newcastle.
Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 September at 08:05 CET. The winner moves on to the preliminary final; the loser is done for the year.
The venue switch comes after their defeat at Go Media Stadium on Saturday 12 September. The Warriors lost 26-16 to the Dolphins in their qualifying final, and with it went their week off.
That one still hurts in Auckland. The Warriors led 16-8 before coughing up three tries in the final 20 minutes.
Newcastle, by contrast, are heading in the other direction. The Knights beat South Sydney 20-10 at Allianz Stadium, a result that raised eyebrows given where they finished the regular season.
It looked even better in context. The club had come off the wooden spoon in 2025 and that was their first finals win since 2023.
Justin Holbrook is getting a first taste of finals footy in his debut season in charge of the Knights. His side also had the benefit of the Round 27 bye, so they arrive fresh.
New Zealand Warriors, plenty of points from the boot and a finish that fell apart 
Sixteen points, all from one man: Taine Tuaupiki scored every point for New Zealand against the Dolphins. He grabbed a try in the 15th minute, then slotted six goals.
That says it all about the attack on the night. The Warriors managed just one try, while their opponents crossed four times.
Discipline also cost them badly. Adam Pompey and Kurt Capewell were both sent to the bin five minutes apart in the first half, handing the Dolphins an extra man.
The pack is still a proper weapon, though, with James Fisher-Harris and Mitchell Barnett leading the way up front. Wayde Egan starts at hooker and Erin Clark lines up at lock.
Jackson Ford is out again, this time with an ankle issue. The second-rower had only managed 24 minutes against the Dolphins on his return from a pec injury, and Morgan Gannon comes back onto the bench.
There are two possible returns among the reserves. Leka Halasima, a late withdrawal last week after tight hamstrings in the warm-up, and winger Dallin Watene-Zelezniak, who has been sidelined since a Round 25 clavicle break.
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Newcastle Knights, a defence that shut South Sydney down 
Ten points up after 27 minutes: Newcastle took control of their elimination final early and never really let go. They were still 10-6 ahead at half-time.
Jermaine McEwen hit a double, scoring in the 4th and 61st minutes. Dane Gagai on 25 and Dominic Young on 65 completed the job, with Sandon Smith kicking two of the four tries.
McEwen’s second try effectively killed the contest. It made it 16-6 just after South Sydney had a try ruled out by the bunker.
Kalyn Ponga remains the main man at the back, behind a backline of Gagai, Bradman Best, Young and Greg Marzhew. Fletcher Sharpe and Sandon Smith are the halves pairing.
Justin Holbrook has named the same 19-man squad that beat the Rabbitohs. That kind of continuity stands out against the changes forced on their opponents.
There is just one tweak in the squad list: Dylan Lucas is named among the reserves. The second-rower has not played since breaking his ankle in Round 21 against the Roosters.
Probable New Zealand Warriors line-up: Tuaupiki – Nicoll-Klokstad, Leiataua, Pompey, Khan-Pereira – Harris-Tavita, Te Maire Martin – Fisher-Harris, Egan, Barnett, Capewell, Laban, Clark. Interchange: Healey, Stowers-Smith, Vaimauga, Ieremia-Toeava, Gannon.
Probable Newcastle Knights line-up: Ponga – Young, Gagai, Best, Marzhew – Sharpe, S. Smith – Frizell, Crossland, Hopwood, McEwen, Manuleleua, Croker. Interchange: Graham, Crouch, Saulo, Cant.
NRL Prediction New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights
Our pick: New Zealand Warriors to win with a -6.5 point handicap
The Warriors finished the regular season in second place and were leading 16-8 against the Dolphins before running out of legs. That loss was about one ugly 20-minute spell, not a gulf in class.
Newcastle were excellent against South Sydney, but this is a different assignment: a trip to New Zealand, no bye to lean on this time, and a pack coming at them with Fisher-Harris, Barnett and Capewell. The Knights also do not have Auckland’s depth, with the same group named again.
The straight New Zealand win price is not worth bothering with. The angle is the handicap: Warriors -6.5.
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