- 1 Celta Vigo vs Malaga: three league goals between them in nine games
- 2 Celta Vigo: five games without a win and a flat attack
- 3 Malaga: a promoted side that can dig in, but can’t score
- 4 La Liga prediction Celta Vigo vs Malaga
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
Celta Vigo vs Malaga: three league goals between them in nine games 
Celta have scored two goals in five La Liga matches, Malaga just one in four. Put them together and the combined total barely fills a hand heading into Sunday.
The game kicks off on Sunday 13 September at 14:00, Spanish and local time, at Abanca Balaidos. It opens the Sunday slate in this fifth round of fixtures.
There is a bit of spice to this one for both clubs. They have not met in the top flight since 18 March 2018, a 0-0 draw from another era of Spanish football.
Celta sit 16th with three points and still without a win in five matches. Three draws and two defeats for Claudio Giraldez’s side, who have played one game more than most of their rivals.
Malaga are 18th with two points from two draws and two defeats. The Andalusian newcomers come in off a 0-0 draw against Levante at La Rosaleda on 6 September, after losing 4-0 at the Bernabeu.
One stat sums it up: Malaga have put only seven shots on target in four rounds, Celta 12 in five. Both sides are battling the same problem, turning possession into anything that actually threatens a keeper.
The lack of creativity is common to both clubs: 12 shots on target for Celta in five rounds, seven for Malaga in four. Neither attack is keeping goalkeepers busy for long.
Balaidos is forecast to be 32 degrees at kick-off, the highest temperature on the La Liga card. That won’t help the tempo, especially at 2pm.
Celta Vigo: five games without a win and a flat attack 
Three points in five games, no wins, two goals scored and five conceded. Celta’s start is their bluntest in recent La Liga memory.
Their latest result came on 7 September, a 1-1 draw at Getafe, with Carl Starfelt rescuing a point in the 57th minute. A week earlier, the Galicians had gone down 2-0 at home to Athletic Bilbao.
Their home form is a real concern: one goal scored and four conceded in matches at Balaidos, from only four shots on target. The stadium is no longer the weapon it used to be.
The shot count also points to a fragile structure: 64 attempts faced across five games, 21 of them on target. They spend plenty of time defending and rarely turn that into dangerous counters.
Iago Aspas, 39, has played only 214 minutes across five appearances and no longer looks like an automatic starter for Celta. Ionut Radu, by contrast, has played every minute in goal.
The injury list is mercifully short on the Celta side. Aleix Febas, who picked up a rib bruise on 30 August, is the only notable doubt in Giraldez’s squad.
The crossing numbers tell the same story: 74 attempted, 13 completed in five games. Celta keep pumping balls into the box, but the delivery is nowhere near good enough.
Los Celestes have also faced 88 crosses in the same span. The pressure on their box is constant, and the shot totals back that up.
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Malaga: a promoted side that can dig in, but can’t score 
Two points from four games, two draws and two defeats for the newly promoted Andalusians. One goal scored, seven conceded, and a minus-six goal difference that is second only to Valencia’s in the division.
The 0-0 draw with Levante on 6 September showed Juan Funes’s side can hang on to a result. It was their first clean sheet since returning to the top flight.
The trip to the Bernabeu on 30 August was a different story altogether, ending in a 4-0 defeat that needs little explanation. Against Real Madrid, few teams in the bottom half do much better.
The real issue is up front: seven shots on target in four games and just one goal. Away from home, they have drawn a blank, with zero scored and six conceded.
Chupete has been the most-used attacking player, starting all four matches and converting one of two penalties. Alvaro Herrero has been in goal from day one and has not missed a minute.
The injury room is much busier on the Malaga side. Julen Lobete is out until April after tearing his anterior cruciate ligament on 4 September, Aaron Ochoa is sidelined until January with a meniscus tear, while Fernando Calero, Moussa Diarra and Diego Murillo remain doubts.
The promoted side have won two penalties so far this season, with Chupete converting one of two attempts. That remains their best route to breaking a game open.
Malaga have also faced 51 shots in four games, 21 of them on target. The block can hold at times, as it did against Levante, but it starts to crack once the pace goes up.
Likely Celta Vigo XI: Not available at time of publication.
Likely Malaga XI: Not available at time of publication.
La Liga prediction Celta Vigo vs Malaga
Our prediction: Under 2.5 goals in the match
Three league goals between the two teams in nine matches is the starting point here. Celta have scored just once at Balaidos, Malaga none on the road.
The shot-on-target numbers back up the drought: seven for the Andalusians in four games, 12 for the Galicians in five. Add five Malaga absentees or doubts and the idea of an open game starts to look a bit fanciful.
The call is simple: this stays under three goals. Back under 2.5 goals.
One final historical note closes the case: the last league meeting between these two ended 0-0 on 18 March 2018. Eight and a half years later, the attacking profiles still look painfully similar.
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