- 1 New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins: 13 straight wins between them in Auckland
- 2 New Zealand Warriors: six in a row and the best retention rate
- 3 Dolphins: seven straight wins and the best individual defence in the matchup
- 4 NRL pick New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your role
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the images…
New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins: 13 straight wins between them in Auckland 
The Warriors come in on a six-game winning streak, the Dolphins on seven. No other fixture in the opening week of the finals pits together two runs this long.
The showdown is set for Saturday, 12 September at 18:05 New Zealand time, or 16:05 AEST, at Go Media Stadium in Auckland. Second hosts third from the regular season.
One number matters more than any other here. Since the start of the 2024 season, these sides have met six times, with both winning three and never being separated by more than four points.
The two meetings in 2026 pushed that pattern even further. Both finished with a margin of just two points.
The format gives the winner a direct reward: a preliminary final and a week off. The loser drops into a semi-final the following week, but is not knocked out.
The market has the Warriors at 1.54 and the Dolphins at 2.47, with a line of 4.5 points for the home side. That asks for a margin this clash has not produced for three seasons.
New Zealand Warriors: six in a row and the best retention rate 
The Warriors finished the regular season in second place and on a six-match winning run. That surge locked up home advantage for this qualifying final.
The run tells you plenty about their attack. A 28-12 win over Penrith, 40-6 over Brisbane, 45-26 against South Sydney, 46-32 versus Newcastle and then 31-30 over Manly on the final day.
Across the season, they averaged 30 points per game. Neither attack in this qualifying final has lacked firepower this year.
The most interesting number is elsewhere. With an 82% set completion rate against their opponent’s 77%, the Warriors give the ball away far less often.
That possession edge helps explain why they are favourites. Controlling territory for 80 minutes is still the best way to wear down a defence in a knockout game.
The concern is individual defence. The Warriors’ tackle efficiency sits at 86%, below the Dolphins, and their back line showed cracks late in the regular season.
The 31-30 escape against the Sea Eagles in round 27 underlines that weakness. A side that moves the ball quickly can find space in Auckland, even against the competition’s second-placed team.
The points market rounds out the picture, with the total set at 47.5. This week’s numbers, which land on a 26-22 home win, put the game just above that line.
That gap between the handicap and the projections is worth noting. The market wants 4.5 points, while the models only hand out three.
What happens next depends on Saturday’s result. The NRL only sets the second-week bracket once all four opening-week games are done.
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Dolphins: seven straight wins and the best individual defence in the matchup 
The Dolphins arrive with seven straight wins, one more than their opponents. The Redcliffe club is playing its first finals series in history.
Their end to the regular season was no fixture-padding stroll. They beat Brisbane 40-32, shut out Manly 22-0, saw off Parramatta 34-16, beat the Roosters 26-12 and finished with a 24-20 win over the Titans.
That 22-0 against the Sea Eagles is the clearest sign of the lot. It shows what Kristian Woolf has built all season: a defensive base that can hold up for a full match.
The numbers back that up. At 89% tackle efficiency, the Dolphins have the best defensive reliability of the two teams in one-on-one situations.
Their weakness mirrors the Warriors’ strength. A 77% set completion rate means they hand over the ball more often, so they will spend more time defending in Auckland.
Going forward, there is no shortage of names. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, Herbie Farnworth, Selwyn Cobbo and Isaiya Katoa make up a backline that can punish any slip-up, with a 28-point average per game.
The unknown is the one the stats cannot touch: the occasion. None of these players has played a finals match in Dolphins colours, and Go Media Stadium on a Saturday night is hardly the easiest place to learn what September feels like.
Probable New Zealand Warriors lineup: Not available at time of publication.
Probable Dolphins lineup: Not available at time of publication.
NRL pick New Zealand Warriors vs Dolphins
Our pick: New Zealand Warriors to win
Both models published this week reach the same conclusion on the winner. One has the Warriors by three points, the other lands on a 26-22 home win.
The 82% to 77% retention edge is the most concrete case for the New Zealand side. In a knockout game, giving the ball away less often means defending less often.
Home advantage adds the rest, at a ground where the Dolphins have no finals experience to lean on. The margin should be tight, and the last six meetings make that clear enough.
We are backing the New Zealand Warriors to win outright at 1.54, without touching the handicap line.
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