- 1 New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: 26-47 on the road, the number hanging over this series
- 2 New York Mets: the better mound, and the comfort of home
- 3 San Francisco Giants: better numbers at the plate, weaker returns overall
- 4 MLB Prediction New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information moves
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible betting first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants: 26-47 on the road, the number hanging over this series 
San Francisco came into this one with 26 wins and 47 defeats away from home. That was the worst road record of any team in action on the East Coast this weekend.
The Giants finish their series at Citi Field on Sunday 6 September. New York had taken three of the first four meetings between the sides this season.
Neither team has anything left to play for in the standings. The Mets sit 21 games back in the National League East, while the Giants are 25.5 behind Los Angeles in the West.
Even so, the gap between the two records is still clear. New York were 63-78, San Francisco 59-83.
Both clubs also arrived on the same kind of run, each winning three of their previous five before this series began. Recent form, then, is not the angle here.
The real story is in the season-long numbers. The two pitching staffs have produced very different returns, and that is where this game is likely to be decided.
Christian Scott is set to start for the Mets on Sunday. The Giants starter had not been announced at the time of publication.
This matchup comes down to one simple contrast: San Francisco hit better, New York pitched better and gets home field. That imbalance points the way for the pick.
New York Mets: the better mound, and the comfort of home 
The Mets are batting just .236 as a team, the lower of the two averages. But that does not tell the full story on New York’s attack.
They have hit 168 homers this season, 11 more than San Francisco, and scored only nine fewer runs despite having fewer hits overall. The damage comes through power, not volume.
The real edge comes on the mound. New York own a 4.09 earned run average and a 1.30 WHIP, both better than the Giants’ marks.
Opponents are hitting .239 against the Mets’ staff, and New York have piled up 1,245 strikeouts on the year. That is almost 200 more than San Francisco.
At home, the Mets are 32-40, which is still a long way healthier than the Giants’ road return. Citi Field is not a fortress, but it is enough for this one.
The Mets also came in having won three of their previous five, including two wins at Tampa Bay and a 6-2 victory over Houston.
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San Francisco Giants: better numbers at the plate, weaker returns overall 
San Francisco are hitting .247 as a group, with 1,181 hits and a .405 slugging percentage, all better than New York in those three categories. Even so, the attack has generated only about nine more runs across the season.
The problem starts with getting on base. A .308 on-base percentage severely limits the Giants’ chances of turning traffic into runs.
The pitching staff is the other issue. A 4.38 ERA, a 1.36 WHIP and 523 walks allowed point to a defence that is nowhere near as dependable.
Their strikeout total, 1,063, is the lowest of the two sides. Against a team that lives off the home run, that lack of punch matters.
The heaviest stat in the file is the day-game record: 21-33 compared with the Mets’ 28-28. This one wraps up in daylight.
San Francisco can still land a blow, with a 7-2 win over Arizona and a 7-3 result against Atlanta among their last five before this trip. But two of those five ended in defeat, including a 5-2 loss at Pittsburgh on Thursday.
MLB Prediction New York Mets vs San Francisco Giants
Our pick: New York Mets to win
The Mets hold the edge in the four areas that usually swing this kind of game: ERA, WHIP, opponent batting average and strikeouts.
Add home field, a 3-1 record in the season series and an opponent that has gone 26-47 away from home, and the case gets stronger.
Take the Mets to win. The gap between the two pitching staffs is too wide to go against them at Citi Field.
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