Match context: Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets 
The Jets turn up with an ugly record, but the truth is messier: 6-4 against the spread, a stout run defense, and a front seven that’s improved since the Gardner and Quinnen Williams trades. The QB change hasn’t reinvented anything, but Tyrod Taylor brings some stability and a lot less chaos than Justin Fields. The real engine remains Breece Hall — still essential to grind out yards and stop everything becoming obvious.
Baltimore keeps racking up wins, but the offence rarely convinces. Lamar Jackson’s back, sure, but the machine’s inconsistent. The run game works, yet when a defence holds the line — like New York did last week — the attack grinds to a halt. This Ravens squad, despite the results, lacks the consistency and snap to justify a two-touchdown margin on pure football reasons.
Key matchups: Baltimore Ravens 
vs 
This will be a trench fight. Baltimore still wants to run Henry and the read-option. New York has one job: break that timing. If the Jets repeat their run-D showing against New England (65 rushing yards allowed), the game tightens instantly. Taylor’s light on weapons — Garrett Wilson’s on IR — but he protects the ball better than Fields. That’s enough to keep them inside the spread against a Ravens defence that hasn’t been terrifying this season.
For Baltimore, everything hangs on red-zone efficiency — a disaster for the past month. Too many drives end with Justin Tucker’s boot. Handing over a 14-point lead in that context is risky against a team that runs well and drags the tempo down.
Free Pick Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets
Result: New York Jets +13,5
The matchup isn’t glamorous. It’s a trap. The Jets can run. They can stop the run. Taylor limits turnovers. Against a laboured Baltimore offence and an inflated spread, the pick’s obvious.
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