- 1 Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico de Madrid: three goals to seven, and the gap is already there
- 2 Athletic Bilbao are just about hanging on
- 3 Atletico Madrid are finding their rhythm
- 4 La Liga prediction Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid
- 5 First, a word on our free picks
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico de Madrid: three goals to seven, and the gap is already there 
Three goals in three games for Athletic, seven for Atletico Madrid: the attacking gulf between the two sides is obvious. Four points also separate them in the table.
Kick-off is on Saturday, September 5 at 16:15 Spanish time at San Mames. This fourth round pits 12th against third in La Liga.
The Basques come into this one after a rough start, with two defeats and just one win. Atletico remain the last unbeaten side behind the Barcelona-Real Madrid duo.
Athletic opened with a 3-1 home defeat to Sevilla, already at San Mames. The trip to Barcelona then ended in a blunt 2-0 loss.
A 2-0 win at Balaidos against Celta Vigo in round three stopped the bleeding. It is the only match this season in which the Basques have scored more than once.
Atletico, meanwhile, have picked up seven points from nine: 2-0 against Malaga, 2-2 with Villarreal, then 3-1 at Sevilla. No defeats, and a clear uptick in their attacking output.
That 3-1 win away to Sevilla, the same side that beat Athletic, gives a straight comparison point. Both teams have faced the same Andalusian opponent and came away with opposite results.
This game will hinge on whether the Basques can hold a defensive block that has already shipped five goals in three matches. Against an Atletico attack in form, there is very little room for error.
Atletico boast the third-best attack in the division, behind Barcelona and Real Madrid. Athletic sit at the other end of the scale, with just three goals scored.
Athletic Bilbao are just about hanging on 
One win, two defeats, three points: the Basque start has been about survival more than anything else. 12th place after three matches says plenty.
The numbers tell an even harsher story: three goals scored, five conceded, a negative goal difference. Few mid-table sides look this unbalanced.
The opening-day 3-1 home loss to Sevilla set the tone in the worst possible way. The 2-0 defeat in Barcelona only underlined the problems against top-half opposition.
The 2-0 away win at Celta Vigo remains the one bright spot. It ended a run of two straight losses.
Even that result comes with a caveat, though, given Celta have one of the bluntest attacks in La Liga. They have scored just once in three games, so Athletic’s defensive display does lose a bit of shine.
Alex Berenguer, defender Aitor Paredes and Robert Navarro have shared the three goals. No Athletic forward has scored twice this season.
Inaki Williams, Yeray and Inigo Ruiz de Galarreta have one assist each. The attacking output is spread across six players for a total of three goals.
Unai Simon has been beaten five times in three games, a rate that does not fit any serious European ambitions. Hosting Atletico in that state is asking for trouble.
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Atletico Madrid are finding their rhythm 
Two wins, one draw, seven points from nine: Atletico remain the only unbeaten team in the league behind Barca and Real. Third place reflects their start accurately.
Seven goals scored and three conceded leaves them with a plus-four goal difference. Only the two giants from Madrid and Catalonia have done better at this stage.
The 2-0 win over Malaga got them going, the 2-2 draw with Villarreal cost them two points. The response came in Seville, where they cruised to a 3-1 win.
That draw with Villarreal is still the only blemish on their record. Villarreal, in fact, are still winless and have only two points from three games.
That latest result matters most of all. Sevilla had beaten Athletic 3-1 at San Mames two weeks earlier.
Alex Baena leads the Atletico attack with three goals in three matches, plus one assist. He has been the most decisive player in the squad since the restart.
Ademola Lookman, Giuliano Simeone, Lee Kang-In and defender Marc Pubill have also scored once apiece. Six different players have supplied assists, including David Hancko, Pablo Barrios and Marcos Llorente.
That kind of spread makes life awkward for any defence. Jan Oblak, for his part, has conceded only three goals across the whole run.
Probable Athletic Bilbao line-up: Not disclosed at the time of publication.
Probable Atletico Madrid line-up: Not disclosed at the time of publication.
La Liga prediction Athletic Bilbao vs Atletico Madrid
Our prediction: Atletico Madrid to win
The straight comparison points clearly towards Atletico: they won 3-1 in Seville, while Athletic lost 3-1 to that same side at San Mames. Same test, opposite outcome.
Add in the huge gap in output, seven goals to three, three conceded to five. Alex Baena has scored as many goals as the entire Basque squad.
Atletico are still unbeaten this season, while Athletic have already lost twice, including once at home. After three rounds, the hierarchy is pretty clear.
Atletico leave San Mames with all three points. The bet is built on an unbeaten side facing an opponent conceding close to two goals a game.
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