- 1 Sharks vs Storm: five key men rested by the Sharks, one number that changes everything
- 2 Cronulla Sharks: a fresh halves pairing for a game with no ladder pressure
- 3 Melbourne Storm: settled side and two farewells to play for
- 4 NRL Prediction Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm
- 5 First, a word on our free predictions
- 6 No commitment from us
- 7 Information changes
- 8 Your responsibility
- 9 Responsible gambling comes first
- 10 Legal age
- 11 About the visuals…
Sharks vs Storm: five key men rested by the Sharks, one number that changes everything 
Craig Fitzgibbon has left Nicho Hynes, Blayke Brailey, Teig Wilton and KL Iro out of the squad for the final round. Add Tom Hazelton’s one-match ban for a hip drop and the picture becomes even clearer.
The game is at Ocean Protect Stadium in Sydney on Saturday 5 September, with kick-off at 7.35pm local time in Australia. It is the final act of the regular season before the finals begin.
Cronulla Sharks sit fifth and already know they are heading into an elimination game. That gives the staff complete freedom over selection, and it shows.
Melbourne are 11th and will miss the finals for the first time in 16 years. That is a strange sight for a club used to going deep, but it has not stopped the group competing right to the end.
The two teams come in on opposite runs. The Storm beat Brisbane last week, while the Sharks were thumped 38-18 by Parramatta, a side already out of the race.
Craig Fitzgibbon did not hide his frustration after that display. The message to the dressing room lands even harder with two debutants thrown in on Saturday.
One final stat rounds it off: the Sharks have lost three of their last four against teams outside the top 8. The Storm fit that bill exactly.
Cronulla Sharks: a fresh halves pairing for a game with no ladder pressure 
The Sharks are coming off that 38-18 defeat to the Eels, suffered against a side already out. It is a pattern that keeps cropping up: three defeats in their last four against teams outside the top 8.
Resting Nicho Hynes leaves Cronulla without their chief organiser. Niwhai Puru moves to halfback and Riley Pollard makes his NRL debut at five-eighth, an entirely new combination for a game of this size.
The middle of the park has been shaken up too. Michael Gabrael gets his first NRL start at centre alongside Riley Jones, while Mawene Hiroti sits out with a rib issue and KL Iro is being managed.
Up front, Hohepa Puru takes the No. 9 shirt from Blayke Brailey and Billy Burns slots into No. 12. Braden Uele, Jayden Berrell and Tuku Hau Tapuha make up a heavily altered bench.
There are still strong reference points for Cronulla, starting with Addin Fonua-Blake and Cameron McInnes in the pack. Sione Katoa, just two tries short of 100 in the NRL, also has every reason to keep attacking out wide.
Home advantage is real enough: six wins from their last seven at Ocean Protect Stadium. But none of those came with a halves pairing this inexperienced.
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Melbourne Storm: settled side and two farewells to play for 
Craig Bellamy has named the same starting side with no changes for the final game. Hugo Peel is the only addition to the bench, coming in for Marion Seve.
That kind of stability is the complete opposite of what is happening across the field. Melbourne roll out their full spine, with Harry Grant at hooker, Jahrome Hughes at halfback and Cameron Munster at five-eighth.
There is an emotional layer too. Tyran Wishart is playing his 100th game for the Storm and is on his way out, as is Nick Meaney, who partners him in the centres.
Those exits, plus a final game of the season, give this group plenty to play for even if the ladder says otherwise. Last week’s win over Brisbane showed they are still turning up.
The downside is the trip itself: Melbourne have not won at Ocean Protect Stadium since 2017. That is a long time, though it was a very different Sharks side back then.
The key factor is the imbalance in preparation. One team is intact and playing its last game; the other is wrapping its stars in cotton wool a week before the finals.
Probable Cronulla Sharks team: Kennedy ; Katoa, R. Jones, Gabrael, Mulitalo ; Pollard, N. Puru ; Fonua-Blake, H. Puru, Colquhoun, Nikora, Burns, McInnes
Probable Melbourne Storm team: Faalogo ; Tuimalatu-Brown, Wishart, Meaney, Leo ; Munster, Hughes ; Utoikamanu, Grant, King, Blore, Keeley, Loiero
NRL Prediction Cronulla Sharks vs Melbourne Storm
Our pick: Melbourne Storm win
Cronulla Sharks turn up with five big names missing and two players making their NRL debut in key roles, including at five-eighth. A Pollard-Puru pairing against Munster and Hughes is too lopsided to be rescued by home advantage alone.
Last week backs that up: the Sharks leaked 38 points against an Eels side with nothing on the line, and they have now lost three of their last four against teams outside the top 8. Melbourne arrive in the opposite state, full strength, off the back of a win over Brisbane and with Tyran Wishart and Nick Meaney heading for their goodbyes.
The 2.30 price on a Storm win is the weekend value play in the NRL. Melbourne to win in Sydney.
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